NY-20: Poll shows Chris Gibson far behind Rep. Scott Murphy (D-Glens Falls)

Despite a huge voter enrollment advantage for his party in the 20th House district — which stretches from the Hudson Valley to Saranac Lake — Republican Chris Gibson lags sharply behind incumbent Rep. Scott Murphy.

Murphy is better known, with a stronger favorability rating than Gibson, and voters say Murphy will represent them better on the issues, according to a Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely voters released today.

What’s more, Murphy is polling well above the 50% mark considered important for incumbents hoping to win re-election.  He leads Gibson 54-37%.

What’s more, Murphy is attracting support from 32% of Republicans, a devastating number given what was supposed to be severe anti-Democratic anger in the district.

Murphy’s support is strongest in the North Country, according to Siena, where he is hitting 59%.  Again, that’s a remarkable statistic for a region once considered a GOP bastion.

But here is perhaps the most stunning revelation in this poll:  Voters in NY-20 still support President Barack Obama’s stimulus package by wide margins.

If that holds true, it undermines the core narrative of Chris Gibson’s campaign.  Here’s the comment from Siena’s Steven Greenberg.

“By a 57-39 percent margin, voters support Obama’s stimulus proposal. A majority supports his proposal to eliminate tax cuts for the wealthy, and half the voters would prefer to implement the recent health care reform legislation, compared to 44 percent who would like to see it repealed. Democrats and independent voters support the President on all three proposals, while Republicans strongly oppose his positions,” Greenberg said.

More takeaways:

-Murphy leads among women by 26%.

-Murphy leads on every issue, including jobs and taxes.

-Murphy leads by a 2-to-1 margin among independents.

Greenberg points out that Murphy’s lead is an “early” one, with roughly seven weeks of campaigning to go.  But it also raises tough questions about what line of attack Gibson might use to whittle away at the Democrat’s lead.

Read the full report here.

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14 Comments on “NY-20: Poll shows Chris Gibson far behind Rep. Scott Murphy (D-Glens Falls)”

  1. knuckleheadedliberal says:

    This validates what I’ve been saying. This WAS a strongly GOP district a long time ago but the district has changed and the GOP has changed.

    When I was a kid everyone said you had to register as a Republican or you wouldn’t get a job, then they said you had to register as a Republican or you could never vote in a primary, then they said the district is Republican by a 2-1 margin. All, thankfully, are false statements. And yet there are thousands of people registered as Republicans who live in this district who can no longer be counted on to pull the lever (so to speak) for the kind of people the GOP has asked us to vote for in the past…like that drunk and wife-beater guy the party loved so much before.

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  2. knuckleheadedliberal says:

    To be clear, I’m not comparing Gibson to the drunk wife-beater. Just saying that the party leadership used to expect Republicans to be sheep and vote for any kind of criminal they put on the ballot.

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  3. Jake says:

    Let me repeat this, According to a new Siera poll, Murphy is polling well above the 50% mark considered important for incumbents hoping to win re-election. He leads Gibson 54-37%. THAT”S WHAT I”M TALKING ABOUT WOO! Rep. Scott Murphy for Congress in 2010!

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  4. Squeaky says:

    This is the same Seina Polling group that had Lazio winning the primary against Paladino by one point just days before the primary. Lazio lost 63 to 37 statewide. This poll has no credibility whatsoever. Gibson will defeat Murphy on the issues. Gibson favors repeal of Obamacare and the end of this reckless spending. Murphy pretends to be a fiscal conservation but when it comes time to vote he votes with Pelosi and against the will of his constituents. This poll will be proven wrong on November 2.

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  5. Craig says:

    Rather strange new polls are starting to change there models and trying to include” today’s new voter”.

    Look at what has happen to Cuomo within just a matter of days he must change his strategy or Andrew will be done. When all the incumbents have been looking to statistics to managed there campaigns its really nothing more than common sense. Don’t they get it.

    That’s why my family is voting for Chris Gibson. When he was getting his PHD from Cornell he never lost his common sense and that’s Chris.

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  6. Craig says:

    JAKE you lost your common sense.

    Reading to much media and not looking at the MURPHY FACTS that made so many people dislike him saying one thing and doing something else.

    FACTS ARE FACTS FACTS ARE FACTS FACTS ARE FACTS FACTS ARE REAL

    “CAP & TRADE” H.R. 2454 – The American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 Passed 219-212 Cost to you $13,105/ avg household
    $2 trillion Market for Wall Street Special Interests Voted Yay

    “STIMULUS BILL” H.R. 1 – The American Recovery And Reinvestment Act 2009 Passed 244-188 $3,431/ cost avg household $787 billion in corporate welfare Not In Congress Supported

    “FOOD SAFETY” H.R. 2749 – The Food Safety Enhancement Act of 2009 Passed 280-150 Major strain on local and organic farms Nominal cost to Major Corporate Farms, reduces competition Special Interests Voted Yay

    “WALL STREET REFORM” H.R. 4173, Wall Street Reform & Consumer Protection Act Passed 223-202 Higher Banking fees, less competition Helps “Too Big To Fail” Banks at the expense of competition Special Interests Voted Yay

    “HEALTH CARE BILL” H.R. 3590 – The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act Passed 219-212 Cost $5,994/ avg household Subsidize Health Insurance and Pharmaceutical Industries Special Interests Voted Yay

    “AUDIT THE FED” H.R. 1207 – Federal Reserve Transparency Act of 2009 Not yet voted Holds Federal Reserve accountable Exposes Federal Reserve Bailouts To AIG and Big Banks The People

    Co-Sponsored 1/6= 17% Total Constitutional Grade F

    Representative Scott Murphy District 20, New York 111th Congress Years in Office: 1 http://scottmurphy.house.gov Washington, DC Office 120 Cannon HO

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  7. Craig says:

    knuckleheadedliberal says:
    September 17, 2010

    Careful what you wish for…

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  8. Jake says:

    @Craig: For your information, Scott Murphy has helped to create more then 1000 jobs as well as small businesses throughout his life. One of those small businesses is this new restaurant/desert shop called “The Chocolate Mill” in Glens Falls. I’ve been there it’s AWSOME he helped that place open it’s business. Gibson’s a nice guy, but Murphy has put JOBS FIRST for this district, he’s constantly making himself available to his constituents and he HAS voted against his party. He voted to cut of funding to ACORN when it became apparent that they had some shady business going on with them. So I lost my “common sense” huh? Whatever stay classy and Scott Murphy 2010!

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  9. Jake says:

    ‎”The TimesUnion” Paper reported that The National Riffle Association (NRA) endorsed Rep. Scott Murphy over Chris Gibson. This REALLY SHOWS that Murphy really is an Independent Moderate who can appeal to all walks of life and political perspectives. FOR ONCE I agree with the NRA Vote for Scott Murphy in 2010!

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  10. Ronald says:

    Jake, the house voted 345-75 to cut voting for ACORN and the Senate did so as well 85-11. So he voted WITH the majority of the Dems to cut the funding. How about you 1. Find some common sense, 2. Use it to read and educate yourself, 3. Vote for Chris Gibson

    Nice Talk

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  11. Jake says:

    @Ronald: How about you A. learn some manners, B. Look at my whole argument in favor of Murphy before you attack me and C. look at the fact that Scott Murphy has business experience, where as a guy like Rep. Paul Ryan who the right wing LOVES has none. Scott Murphy helped create over 1000 jobs many of them internet based. He’s not a career politician, like Paul Ryan. Look at RYAN”S record, he’s the same age as Murphy and he’s been in congress 11 YEARS. I probably can’t convince you to vote for Murphy but I still am. Deal with it.

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  12. Craig says:

    @Jake
    Murphy has created some jobs. He created more before he was in Congress because he had money to invest after he sold his internet company.

    GIBSON just was endorsed by the a Small Business Assocation also. As a business person who has to grow in the trenches most small businesses don’t agree with MURPHY becasue he has voted to increase cost of doing business not helped.

    Yes his ad says he helped the brew pub save 18 jobs but his consituents have a deep dislike for this man because he lied to us and supports OBAMA and NANCY. they both need be FIRED.

    They have screw this country up like never before. http://www.chrisgibsonforcongress.com

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  13. Jake says:

    @Craig: You say that people in this district “have a deep dislike for this man” but this very page that you and I have both been commenting on shows in this Siena Poll that Murphy leads Gibson among every group of people listed. I know this is only one poll but I have yet to see any poll where Gibson has any kind of lead on Murphy except with republicans which by the way Murphy again according to THIS poll, has 32% of support from in his own right. Even Gibson himself said that Murphy is “A Successful Business Man” he’s right, which is a big reason why I support Scott Murphy in 2010!

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  14. Gary Gallo says:

    Well its Nov. 3rd. and Gibson won handily over Murphy. So much for polls!

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