New polling out today from Quinnipiac, the New York Times and CBS suggest that while the popular vote for president remains in a dead heat, the battleground states are tilting toward the Democratic incumbent.
According to Quinippiac’s numbers, Barack Obama now leads by 11 points in Pennyslvania, and has also established 6-point advantages in Ohio and Florida.
Those three states, combined with the states Obama already has safely in his column, give the president 294 electoral college votes — 24 more than he needs to win a second term.
Another troubling sign for Republican challenger Mitt Romney is that he seems to be making little headway with groups beyond the GOP’s core voter bloc of whites and men.
This latest survey shows a larger than expected margin for the Democrat, particularly in Florida and Ohio, and is noteworthy because it puts Obama above the 50% mark in both states for the first time.
Politico has reported that — if the polls are accurate — Romney is currently winning only one of the ten battleground states expected to decide this year’s presidential race.
Romney leads narrowly in North Carolina, while Obama has slightly larger advantages in nine other states.
Meanwhile, Nate Silver at the New York Times, is suggesting that there is now a 3.9% chance of Obama winning the presidency, while losing the popular vote.
A split between the winners of the popular vote and the Electoral College is still relatively unlikely, in the view of the model. There is only a 3.9 percent chance that Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote, it estimates.
However, the model now assigns just a 1.3 percent chance to the reverse happening: Mr. Romney’s winning the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.
The good numbers for Obama come at the end of a rough overseas trip for Romney, where he stumbled into several gaffes and also saw his staff tangle with the press corps.