100 Day Sprint: Democratic poll shows Owens with 12 point lead
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has released findings from a new survey showing North Country Representative Bill Owens with a wide lead over Republican challenger Matt Doheny.
Owens, a Democrat from Plattsburgh, gathered 50% of support, according to the poll. That’s an important benchmark for an incumbent seeking re-election.
Doheny, the Republican from Watertown, was at 38%, according to the survey of 400 likely voters, which was conducted in the final three days of July.
“Roughly three months before Election Day, Congressman Bill Owens is well positioned to win re-election in New York’s newly-configured 21st Congressional District,” according to a statement by Anzalone Liszt Research, which conducted the poll.
They note that Owens currently leads by a margin that is wider than the percentage of undecided voters, which stands currently at 8%. (The margin of error for this poll is plus or minus 4.9%.)
Meanwhile, Green Party candidate Donald Hassig also drew some support, winning 4% of voter interest. If the race narrows in the weeks ahead, that number could be significant.
Reacting to the survey, Doheny spokesman Jude Seymour sent this statement this morning to NCPR:
“The fact that Bill Owens can’t break 50 percent as an incumbent in a poll commissioned by his own party is indicative of how much trouble he’s in this fall. When people find out that Owens is part of job-killing agenda of this administration, that number is going to be much lower than 50 percent.”
Seymour says he doesn’t know of any GOP-sponsored polling that will be released “publicly” any time soon.
A 12% gap is certainly a much bigger hill to climb than I would have anticipated at this stage in the race, in a district with such a heavy Republican tilt in voter registration, and given Doheny’s ambitious, active and well-funded campaign.
I wonder if Doheny isn’t getting caught in some of the New York headwinds that face all GOP contenders: the relatively high popularity of Barack Obama, and the soaring popularity of Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo.
As always, your comments and thoughts welcome.
Tags: election12, politics, polling
Doheny has another headwind to overcome as well: Owens is a winner, and he is a loser. He is the guy who came up short in the last election. How common is it for the loser to become the winner in a rematch? I don’t have any statistics on tap, but I suspect that it is not so common.
“Nothing succeeds like success.” As true in politics as in business.
I really see it as Bill’s popularity that is the reason for the wide margin in the poll. Without any reservation, I would be voting for the incumbent because he has been doing a good job, to think that my vote would be influenced by Barack Obama or Andrew Cuomo is absolutely asinine.
I would like to know Bill’s position on wind power in Cape Vincent, however being a supporter of green energy is a small step in the right direction.
I don’t think the results are due to a love for Cuomo, Obama or even Owens himself. I think the spread is almost entirely due to Doheny’s character. The multiple drinking and boating events and then the whole DC restaurant affair have led people to believe that Doheny thinks the rules don’t apply to him (whether those rules are legal ones or ethical ones). And those examples just represent the times he actually got caught. What else is out there? Conservative party leaders and his supporters have even said they are afraid there might be more scandals or legal infractions hidden in his closet. And what does his disregard for the law and disrespect for his wife say about him? Is that really the kind of guy we want as a congressman? I think those are the questions voters are really struggling with.
Glad to see so few comments on this non-story (which is not only about a pointless poll, but rather an even more-pointless partisan poll).
I would expect Hassig’s number to rise as we get closer to November.
It’s kind of unfortunate the Greens couldn’t find a candidate who isn’t single-issue focused. The gimmicky candidacies demean the value of smaller party politics, which our system BADLY needs more of.
Rather than these silly and pointless horse race polls, what would be more interesting to me is to see what effect endorsements really have on most voters?
I really only take note of an endorsement if it’s unexpected or against the expected orthodoxy. If Cuomo endorses Obama, I yawn. If, say, Pataki or Nader does (the latter would never happen), then I take notice.
The Republicans should really stop talking about the “job killing Democrats” because it is they and their rich friends who are the job killers.
With all the tax breaks and tax loopholes the rich have and with all the money corporations are making, nothing, absolutely nothing is trickling down.
What we seem to have is a trickle up economy where the rich git richer and complain they need more before they allow some to trickle down.
Brian (MOFYC) –
Sometimes your “horse-racey” complaints resonate. Not this time.
This is the very first measure we’ve had of where this race stands, and it’s a significant surprise — a 12-point spread according to the Democrats.
It took me off guard and I’m guessing it startled most people watching the NY-21 race.
(Given Owens’ incumbency, etc., I would have said a 4-6% lead was a good margin for him at this point, given the Republican lean of the district.)
The Doheny camp, meanwhile, has expressed skepticism, but they haven’t yet a) provided their own numbers (which they say they have) to counter the suggestion that Owens holds a big lead, or b) offered up argument that the methodology of the poll was seriously flawed.
Until now, the only people who had any glimmer of where the race stood were political insiders in the Democratic and Republican parties.
For the rest of us to gain a clearer sense of where the campaign stands is, in a word…news.
–Brian, NCPR
The 21st is now a solidly Democratic district I think the shift happened around a decade ago and we are just now seeing the results.
Once again why not vote for Owens if you are a moderate Republican?
In a way what we are seeing among moderate Republicans in NY is the same sort of thing we saw among moderate to conservative Democrats in the South.
They both are becoming extinct.
As a guy who took a polling class in college, I gotta say that only having 400 respondents (even if they are “likely voters) makes this a bogus poll. Having said that, I’m VERY happy Bill Owens is doing pretty well so far. Bill Owens in 2012: a true voice for moderation.