Can Obama reclaim the magic? Probably not.

One of the thorniest challenges for Democrats in the post-Reagan era — following the exodus of many white, working class voters to the GOP — has been the lack of voting zeal within the remaining “progressive coalition” that defines the left.

The vast majority of polls show that if Democratic-leaning groups (minorities, young people, urban liberals, etc.) voted with the same intensity as Republican-leaning groups (white, older, rural conservatives), there would be little contest in American presidential elections.

Democrats would win hands-down.

But the simple truth is that the left-of-center “silent majority” has proved nearly impossible to harness with any consistency.

Barack Obama pulled it off in 2008, stitching a patchwork of groups that were anti-war, anti-Bush, anti-corporate and anti-Washington.  In doing so, he defeated a much more seasoned, well-known Republican war hero, John McCain, by nearly 10 million votes.

But by 2010, the left-of-center coalition had fallen back into somnolence and disarray.  The tea party shouldered its way into the national consciousness.

It was a stunning, and completely typical triumph:  A much smaller group of conservative Americans organized more effectively and more persistently, shifting the national agenda, and swinging control of the House in dramatic fashion.

2012, according to most pundits’ predictions, won’t be a wave year like 2008 or 2010.  But it doesn’t need to be either of those things for conservatives to fare well against Democratic candidates, including Barack Obama.

In a “normal” year, Republican-leaning voters will typically outperform their Democratic-leaning counterparts and there are signs that this is happening.

According to a Gallup poll in July, Democratic zeal in 2012 is about on par with Republican enthusiasm in 2008.  In other words, down more than twenty points over the last four years.  Republican enthusiasm, meanwhile, is 16 points higher than in 2008.

Those trends are reflected in much of the progressive movement’s impatient rhetoric about Obama.

One day last week Huffingtonpost — a zeitgeist journal for left of center voters – was headlined with an article suggesting that the “hope” of Barack Obama’s presidency has been “killed,” with Obama himself described as a “DC establishment man.”

The front page of the popular website included a lengthy opinion article by liberal actor John Cusack suggesting that Obama “gutted” the US Constitution.

I hear this kind of language frequently from my more progressive acquaintances, many of whom view Obama’s first term as a “failure” — though for profoundly different reasons than Mitt Romney or Rush Limbaugh.

Some still plan to vote grudgingly for the Democrat, because they dislike the Republican ticket even more.  But I suspect that many progressive voters will sit this election out, particularly students, African American and Hispanics, and far-left liberals.

Team Obama hopes to counter apathy and disarray on the left with a state-of-the-art get out the vote organization, one that merges traditional neighborhood activism with new- and social-media pushes.

But it’s an open question whether Twitter and Facebook can revive enough of the 2008 magic to lift Barack Obama to a second term?

All of which brings us to this week’s Democratic convention in Charlotte.

We already know that many union groups are in a grump, angry that Obama chose to hold the rally in North Carolina, a state that has weak pro-union laws.  That doesn’t bode well, but it may be typical in a left-in-a-muddle sort of year.

Against headwinds like that, Obama will try to rally his base, urging the alphabet soup of factions to put aside short-term disappointments and irritations to embrace again some version of the broad, hopeful vision that he offered four years ago.

Republican rhetoric aside, the president has a fair amount of red meat to offer liberals.

Obama ended the war in Iraq, pushed through the closest thing to universal healthcare that America has ever seen, ended segregation against gay people in the military, took a political thrashing for subsidizing alternative energy technologies, and helped to save the US automobile industry that unions rely upon — all while dealing with the deepest economic downturn since the Great Depression.

He also managed to pull off four years as the first black man in the White House in our nation’s history.  It’s a feat that modern pundits have largely downplayed or ignored, but one which I suspect historians will spill a lot of ink over.

Still, liberals are a famously stubborn, impatient crowd and I’m not sure that’s enough.  I suspect that when the votes are counted in November, a big chunk of America’s silent majority will remain, well, silent.

In these final weeks of the campaign, left-of-center voters will wring their hands over voter suppression by Republicans.  But I suspect that far, far more Democratic voters will be lost to liberal apathy than to conservative chicanery.

 

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156 Comments on “Can Obama reclaim the magic? Probably not.”

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  1. JDM says:

    One sees what one is looking for. That can happen when one prejudges a situation.

    I saw 2500 delegates, and that goes for both conventions.

  2. JDM says:

    One has to go to a liberal blog to get a “color count”.

  3. knuckleheadedliberal says:

    I suppose everyone looks exactly the same in your eyes JDM. Good for you in being so progressive. But at the same time you should have your eyes checked. Can you tell a pug from a mastiff? A pinto from a palomino?

  4. JDM says:

    If “progressive” means that a person’s skin color matters, I don’t want any part of it.

  5. It's Still All Bush's Fault says:

    I believe that TomL has got it right. I don’t believe that he ever lost the magic. I see many people still “enchanted” with Pres. Obama.

    His recent roll through the college campuses should yield a large number of new converts. College students have realized that the likelihood of landing a decent job in this economy is not good. He is a charismatic speaker and his style will again appeal to the younger voters.

  6. Larry says:

    “Taxes will have to be raised.”

    Why, so we can continue to fund industries and projects that are not economically viable? Some people just don’t get it. When the government has all our money we will be completely at their mercy.

  7. Kathy says:

    Still has the magic? That denotes putting a kind of spell on the American people. And as was previously stated, yes, there are many who are enchanted with President Obama. Scary.

    On another note, I went into viewing the DNC last night to learn the other side. Michele Obama gave a very good speech in presenting her husband’s character. It’s just that he thinks government is the solution. I don’t.

    The atmosphere of the DNC last night lacked propriety . Many keynote speakers were trying too hard and it showed. One that comes to mind is Nancy Keenan screaming into the microphone about a woman’s right to her body. (Huh. I wonder about the baby girl’s rights that is being aborted?)

    The progressive camp is not moving forward in the vein of understanding that change is inevitable. It is a group that is often militant in nature, demanding their right to be heard because they want to cast off all restraints of conscience.

  8. Paul says:

    Mervel,

    I also disagree. That was sarcasm. That is the solution I keep hearing from some.

    The tax code must be reformed. The democrats seem to only mention corporate loopholes in their platform. Maybe I should read it again.

  9. Paul says:

    This convention seems aimed at the base. Independents don’t care much about these social issues. I guess this is normal. These things are a big pep rally before the real election campaign begins. I saw a news story this morning about the first ladies nail polish, a very important election issue! I am looking forward to the first debate (taking place at my Alma mater) later this month.

  10. Larry says:

    How about some tax reform that reduces the number of Americans (+/- 50%) who don’t pay Federal Income Taxes?

  11. TomL says:

    JDM, yes I do. And the number of women in positions of power too. Racism and sexism are still very real in America, by any measure. And especially by measures of economic and political power. We delude ourselves if we say they are not. Have you looked at the composition of the Senate in the 21st century?

  12. Larry says:

    TomL,
    Have you looked around lately? Some measure of racism and sexism will always exist but they are mostly important and relevant to people who are not affected by them and those who make political capital out of them. Where it counts: where people live, where they vote, where they spend and where they work, former victims of discrimination are less interested in the composition of the Senate than they are in enjoying the benefits of American life. They don’t see themselves as victims; they see themselves as achievers.

  13. Kathy says:

    TomL, the problem is racism and sexism is being turned around and aimed at conservative white men and non-feminist women.

  14. JDM says:

    TomL: “Have you looked at the composition of the Senate in the 21st century?”

    I’m pretty sure it’s made up of people. 100 of them.

  15. Walker says:

    That [raising taxes on the rich] is the solution I keep hearing from some.

    Paul, that’s a straw man and I think you know it is. Where are you hearing anyone say that raising taxes on the rich would be a complete solution to our economic problems? It’s like saying that cutting funding to Kathy’s hit list would solve all our problems. You can’t go from the obvious inadequacy of that one step in isolation to say that cutting some of those programs wouldn’t be worth doing.

    As I have said before, raising taxes on the rich combined with cutting waste and fraud in the defense budget and unnecessary corporate subsidies and tax loopholes, taken as a package, would go a long way toward solving our economic problems.

    Taxing the rich more is not sufficient, but it is necessary.

  16. JDM says:

    TomL:

    Here’s how not to solve the color counting issue. Let’s assume your count is correct, and there are 50 out of 2500 at the GOP convention.

    Let’s say the Dems decide the “correct” number of blacks proportionate to something? is 1335 out of 2500.

    So, the doors open, and guess what? only 1235 blacks show up. So the Dems tell 100 people to please leave. Then they rent a bus and load it up with 100 blacks, only.

    This is called Affirmative Action. You now have precisely the right number of blacks at your convention.

    You shifted the “discrimination” from blacks to some other group by telling 100 of them to leave, so you haven’t solved the discrimination problem, you merely shifted it from group to another.

    You have the right number of people, but you haven’t dealt with the underlying issue. A perfect description of the Democratic party.

  17. JDM says:

    and you’re telling the 100 people, “the only reason you are here is the color of your skin”.

    Apologies to MLK.

  18. Mervel says:

    I thought Julian Castro did a pretty good job last night.

    Right now he is looking at the Gov. of Texas as his next step, I hope that works!

    I don’t know I think that these divisions based on ethnicity and race are probably not healthy. However, people do have different backgrounds, and those backgrounds inform us on how we think and vote. We are looking at around 25%-35% of the entire US population being of Hispanic descent within the next 20 years within that same period whites in the US will become an minority. So, if your party for whatever reason is not popular with the majority of this one group, you are in deep trouble. For example, the Republicans need to figure out how they are going to win a national election without the second biggest state, Texas? Is that ever possible just on the numbers? Once Texas flips purple or blue I think you will see many more Republicans talking about getting rid of the electoral collage than you do now!

  19. Walker says:

    You know, JDM, if it actually worked that way, I’d be against it just as much as you are. But if you assume that a reasonable minority representation among delegates could only happen as a result of a quota system, it speaks volumes about your opinion of minorities.

  20. Kathy says:

    However, people do have different backgrounds, and those backgrounds inform us on how we think and vote.

    There is American history/culture/tradition and there is Hispanic history/culture/tradition. Would we expect immigrants to keep their values? Yes. Would we expect them to honor ours? Yes.

    There are illegals coming across the border yelling at agents saying, “I know my rights! Your president passed the Dream Act!” Hour after hour, day after day.

    Of course, they do not represent the whole. Yet, why is Spanish becoming America’s second language? Will it someday become first? Immigrants are coming here with their own way of thinking. Is it contrary to America?

    What will America look like in 10 or 20 years? Is it wrong to want to preserve our heritage?

  21. JDM says:

    Walker ” But if you assume that a reasonable minority representation among delegates could only happen as a result of a quota system”

    Not at all. The convention thing was merely an example.

    I do believe this is exactly how Barack Obama got into Columbia and Harvard, which is why he doesn’t want to release his transcripts.

    Those affirmative action types aren’t exactly known for their good grades, you know.

  22. JDM says:

    It won’t matter after November, anyway.

  23. Walker says:

    “What will America look like in 10 or 20 years? Is it wrong to want to preserve our heritage?”

    Kathy, 1950s America looked nothing like 1900, which looked nothing like 1850 or 1800. Things change. We didn’t have “In God we trust” on our money or “under God” in the Pledge of Allegiance until the 1950s. And all women couldn’t vote until the Constitution was amended in 1920.

    There is no one single Norman Rockwell American Heritage, and there never has been. Give it up.

  24. Walker says:

    JDM, what evidence do you have that Obama wouldn’t have gotten into Columbia and Harvard without Affirmative Action? Does it seem to you that he is lacking in intelligence?

    As for his academic transcripts, I don’t think it is the norm for candidates to release their transcripts, though it is usual for candidates to release several years of their tax returns.

    By the way, you figure that Obama was named president of the Harvard Law Review due to Affirmative Action?

  25. Mervel says:

    Kathy Hispanics have been in Texas before it was part of the United States, the majority are not immigrants. San Antonio was the Capital of Spanish Texas. So who’s values are you talking about?

  26. Kathy says:

    There is no one single Norman Rockwell American Heritage, and there never has been. Give it up.

    That’s not what I was talking about – some picture of lazy, summer days sitting on grandma’s porch.

  27. Mervel says:

    “Of course, they do not represent the whole. Yet, why is Spanish becoming America’s second language? Will it someday become first? Immigrants are coming here with their own way of thinking. Is it contrary to America?

    What will America look like in 10 or 20 years? Is it wrong to want to preserve our heritage?”

    There is nothing wrong with preserving our heritage. So if you want to preserve your heritage in Texas or Arizona or New MEXICO one should probably learn Spanish.

  28. Kathy says:

    Mervel, I am talking about anyone who would not respect our heritage. Anyone who sees him or herself anything different than an American.

    Any nationality can live in America and bring their customs, values, and traditions. But first and foremost there should be an allegiance to this country. It seems there is a slow movement of accommodating at the risk of compromising our way of doing things – especially compromising US law.

    So who I am talking about are primarily those who are illegally entering the US.

  29. Mervel says:

    I agree that part of being a US Citizen is following and adhering to our laws and our constitution.

    We do need to enforce and uphold our laws including immigration laws. What ethnicity do you think most border patrol agents are along the Southern Border?

    I do think we need to sort out what we are talking about with heritage though? I find it easy to slip into an idea that my background is our heritage in this country, and its not. It is one of many, and just as valid as any other.

    But I think we need a strong Republican party, and the Republican Party better look at voting trends and try to understand why there is so much imbalance between how groups vote.

  30. JDM says:

    Walker “Does it seem to you that he is lacking in intelligence?”

    Have you heard what he sounds like without the teleprompter?
    Umm. Wellllll. Ummmmm.

    “you figure that Obama was named president of the Harvard Law Review due to Affirmative Action?”

    I think that is very likely the case. Have you seen any article published and available on the Internet from that time period? Please link to it. I would like to read one of his editorials.

  31. JDM says:

    Obama is downsizing.

    70,000 seat stadium may be 3/4 empty. Rain expected. 40% chance of thunder showers.

    (more like 40% chance of re-election)

  32. Paul says:

    “As I have said before, raising taxes on the rich combined with cutting waste and fraud in the defense budget and unnecessary corporate subsidies and tax loopholes, taken as a package, would go a long way toward solving our economic problems. ”

    Walker, this is what I was describing above. You, like the DNC platform, seem to focus only corporate tax loopholes. There needs to be reform of the entire tax code. This argument I cited (not mine) isn’t my straw man it is the one I keep hearing over and over from the president. I seems very appealing to many voters.

  33. Paul says:

    “”They tend to go with how the political wind is blowing.”

    It’s called representing your constituents.”

    Walker to your earlier point. This from today’s NYTs sums it up:

    “As Mr. Clinton himself once told me, however, there are consequences for not clarifying one’s own beliefs as a candidate and then trying to make it up as you go along in office. He wasn’t talking specifically about Mr. Obama, but he might as well have been. As president, Mr. Obama has often seemed to veer between “postpartisan” pragmatism and anticorporate populism, confounding his supporters and satisfying neither constituency.

    This time out, as a candidate, it seems unlikely that Mr. Obama can count on winning a majority of independent votes and turning out the same historic numbers of younger and minority voters. In the weeks ahead, he may have to finally decide whether to speak principally to the fickle voters who gave him a chance in 2008 or whether to fire up the more ideological types who want a more Warren-like champion.”

    Right now it looks like he is leaning toward the latter. I know his rhetoric is not appealing to this voter who gave him a chance last time.

  34. Mervel says:

    Paul,

    Maybe getting rid of corporate loopholes for the Democrats is like getting rid of waste and fraud is for the Republicans, sounds good, in reality nothing there.

  35. Kathy says:

    What ethnicity do you think most border patrol agents are along the Southern Border?

    And you would be surprised to know it’s “difficult” for many of them to not feel allegiance to Mexico.

  36. Walker says:

    ” It seems there is a slow movement of accommodating at the risk of compromising our way of doing things – especially compromising US law.”

    Kathy, Americans have a long, proud tradition of compromising US law. Remember the wild west? Prohibition? The Tea Pot Dome scandal? Watergate? Enron? Bernie Madoff? Who am I leaving out?

  37. Paul says:

    Mervel, they can raise rates all they want on the “wealthy” but if you don’t plug the holes (some which are utilized by the middle class as well) you accomplish zip. There is a lot of money there. Also, there is a lot of fraud and waste as well. This administration has worked on this with some success with Medicare. But without fundamental changes this will continue to be a major problem. I disagree with oa that all you need to do is pump more money into the system to fix it. As for ss you need to raise the retirement age and make it a true safety net system. Too many people count on it as a “retirement” plan. That has to change.

  38. Paul says:

    Walker. perhaps “long” but “proud”?

  39. Walker says:

    Sure proud! Look at all those Westerns with Jesse James and the like as hero, Prohibition glamor figures like Bonnie and Clyde and Al Capone, the Godfather, etc., etc. We do love us a good criminal!

    And even today, we love our astronomically rich CEOs, even if their “aggressive accounting practices” do bend the law beyond all recognition…

    After all, the law as written only applies to the little people.

  40. Walker says:

    “As president, Mr. Obama has often seemed to veer between “postpartisan” pragmatism and anticorporate populism, confounding his supporters and satisfying neither constituency.”

    Paul, Obama is not my ideal candidate, for sure. But compared to Romney and the Republicans? Whew!

    To revive an old metaphor, the Republicans, having driven the car into the ditch and then sabotaged every attempt to pull it out of the ditch for four solid years, now that it’s starting to look like it might actually get out of the ditch, now they want the keys back, so that they can drive just as responsibly as they did during W’s eight years. Why would we expect a Romney presidency to be any less of a disaster?

  41. Walker says:

    ” Michele Obama gave a very good speech in presenting her husband’s character. It’s just that he thinks government is the solution. I don’t.”

    Kathy, did you see this in the NYT today?

    “Now scientists have discovered a vital clue to unraveling these riddles [why some people get cancer and others don’t]…

    The discovery, considered a major medical and scientific breakthrough, has enormous implications for human health because many complex diseases appear to be caused by tiny changes in hundreds of gene switches.

    The findings are the fruit of an immense federal project involving 440 scientists from 32 labs around the world.” More here.

  42. Walker says:

    The point being, of course, that there are things for which government really is the solution. Private industry would never have funded this. They wouldn’t have built the Interstate Highway System either. Or the research that led to the Internet. There are many, many things that need governmental involvement– not just the military.

  43. mervel says:

    Paul,

    The thing for me is though, everyone has talked about doing both of those things; closing “loopholes” and getting rid of fraud and waste, for the past 40 years. I think both of those things exist and can be done, I am not convinced the numbers are there however, until we look at the big three components of our budget and seriously look at cutting that 62% of what all of our federal spending goes for.

    To me I would rather cut one of those or a combination of all three, rather than a road program or a science program in the discretionary spending. We have to change the formula programs, which are in general defense, medicare/medicaid ans social security.

    I think we should close the loopholes and radically reduce the corporate tax rate, which is one of the highest in the developed world.

  44. mervel says:

    We all could pay a little more in taxes, I think most of us would be willing to do that. The question is though will it end up like New York State School/property taxes? Just a never ending hole which no one can say when or if will ever be filled? Federally we borrow more every single year, we borrow I think 40% of every dollar we spend and that is rising. So if we are going to raise taxes to close this gap, when will it end? Ever?

  45. mervel says:

    The short term answer is simply to borrow more and delay the solution, and the credit markets are very willing to loan us the money, so that indeed may be the best solution right now.

  46. Kathy says:

    Fascinating article, Walker.

    I agree the government does play a role in certain endeavors such as this.

  47. JDM says:

    mervel: “We all could pay a little more in taxes, I think most of us would be willing to do that. ”

    No, no, no.

    The only to keep these scoundrels from wasting our money is not to give it to them.

    Do you think they even blink at the $500M rat-hole of Solyndra. Not at all. And that is probably .00001% of all the rat-holes in government.

    They have too much of our money. They about 1/2 as much.

  48. JDM says:

    “The DNC has now added God back into their platform language after originally taking it out. They have also added language back in that says Jerusalem is the capital of Israel. ”

    Weather forecast for 8pm, Thursday, BoA Stadium. 78º and clear.
    http://www.weatherman.com/us/nc/stadiums/bank-of-america-stadium.html

    Obama cannot fill a 20,000 seat stadium, let alone BoA.

    It’s beginning to look ugly.

  49. mervel says:

    “What ethnicity do you think most border patrol agents are along the Southern Border?

    And you would be surprised to know it’s “difficult” for many of them to not feel allegiance to Mexico.”

    Why would they feel allegiance to a country that none of their family is from? The point I was making is that a good portion of Hispanics are not from Mexico, they have always lived in what is now the US. Our heritage IS partially a Spanish heritage. I think Republicans and many people have to get over this concept that Spanish speaking people are all immigrants or from Mexico, who fought for Texas independence? In large part they were Spanish speaking people living in the Southwest who wanted to throw off the shackles of imperial Mexico.

  50. mervel says:

    It is that basic idea that somehow that Hispanic people living in Texas and New Mexico and Arizona and California, somehow are immigrants from Mexico that is so wrong, those parts of the US were part of Mexico first, guess what there were people living there who spoke Spanish and have been Americans longer than most of our families have been.

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