I’ve been accused today of triumphalism, so I thought I might as well indulge in some.
Come election day, score my prognostication skills against this mark: Obama wins the popular vote 49%-48% and he captures the electoral college by a 332-206 margin.
For now, at least, with Florida in Obama’s column, that’s exactly the mark the Democrat hit. I also made a prediction about the reason for his victory:
On election day, the ground game advantage that Barack Obama’s campaign has been bragging about will turn out to be real.
Snap! And I also laid out predictions about the exact map that would get Obama to 332 electoral college votes.
To hit this mark, Obama will win the states that are now essentially tied, including Colorado, Florida and Virginia.
Obama’s margin will be extremely narrow in a surprising number of places — Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin — but he will eke out wins.
I will acknowledge that I got the popular vote percentage wrong by ONE STINKING POINT, putting the final tally at 49-48% rather than the actual outcome of 50-48%.
But I only acknowledge it to point out how amazingly close I was. I know, I know, shameful gloating is never pretty. And yes, it’s always better to be lucky than good.
But when you have a day when you beat Larry Sabato, Nate Silver and most of the truly talented punditocracy, I say you’re owed a victory lap.
In my case, that means taking myself out to the local diner with a good sci-fi novel and ordering a big breakfast with a side of bacon…but you get the idea.