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Reporter’s Notebook: Yelling fire in Tupper Lake

February 27th, 2013 by Brian Mann

The email that sparked accusations of anti-Semitism in Tupper Lake

The North Country is famous for circular firing squads, bitter feuds, and epic turf wars.

But these days, no place quite rivals the community of Tupper Lake for self-immolation.

The latest explosion, detailed in my report this morning, was sparked by Jack Delehanty, a long-time, vocal opponent of the Adirondack Club and Resort.

Delehanty, a former assistant district attorney in Franklin County, wrote a tasteless email earlier this month.

In his message sent to members of his hunting camp, Delehanty celebrated the fact that resort developer Tom Lawson faces financial difficulties, including the possible foreclosure of his private home.

“I know that I took a little too much pleasure perhaps, but nevertheless I did take some, and I’m guilty of that, in finding out that my neighbors were coming upon difficult financial times,” Delehanty told me in an interview.
Village Mayor Paul Maroun called the email “disgraceful” and I couldn’t find anyone who disagreed with that assessment.
But if Delehanty lit this latest fire in Tupper Lake, the actions of the local newspaper, the Tupper Lake Free Press, also deserve close scrutiny for adding gasoline to the blaze.

Editorial from the Tupper Lake Free Press

Publisher Dan McClelland published a strongly worded editorial, accusing “opponents” of the Adirondack Club and Resort of making a “nasty and deeply injurious religious and racial slur” against Susan Lawson, wife of developer Tom Lawson, who is Jewish.

McClelland was responding to this line in Delehanty’s email: “Soak at your own risk in the hot tub after The Nearly-Hassidic One has been there.

Sounds incendiary, right?

But before writing his editorial, McClelland made no effort to find out what Delehanty meant by the phrase, nor did he make any effort to find out who exactly wrote the email or what was intended by it.

Instead, he vaulted to the conclusion that this was evidence of “how far some ACR opponents have stooped in their quest to kill the project.”

An investigation by NCPR found strong evidence to support Delehanty’s claim that the “Near-Hassidic One” reference was a private joke, clearly in poor taste, but not aimed at Susan Lawson.

>Delehanty argues that he was making an off-color reference to another member of his hunting club, with Jewish heritage, a claim corroborated by that individual in a background interview with NCPR.

It’s also worth noting that we could find no one in Tupper Lake who gives credence to the idea that Delehanty or anyone opposing the resort holds the kind of virulent anti-Semitic views suggested by the Free Press editorial.

(One exception is Susan Lawson herself, who is understandably upset by the whole affair and who maintains that Delehanty’s email was a deliberate anti-Semitic attack directed against her.)

It is also clear from our investigation that the controversial phrase was used by Delehanty alone, in a private email sent to members of his hunting camp, and was not produced by “opponents” of the project as part of the wider debate.

Delehanty and McClelland are both prominent community leaders, and both are sophisticated and knowledgeable about the ways of public discourse.

They know better than anyone that the mood in Tupper Lake is volatile, with the Adirondack Club and Resort project still locked in legal and regulatory limbo, and battle lines between neighbors sharply drawn.

What both men did in recent weeks amounted to yelling fire in a crowded movie theater.  One sent a cruel, mean-spirited email that could only serve to inflame animosities.

The other published incredibly serious claims of anti-Semitism, and linked those charges to one faction in a tense political debate, apparently without making any effort to determine the facts of the case.

As a reporter who has covered the resort project for the better part of a decade, I can’t help but think that the community of Tupper Lake deserves better.

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Follow the money – ‘old media’ falling further behind

December 1st, 2012 by Lucy Martin

Google raked in $20.8 billion in ad revenue in the first six months of 2012, while the whole U.S. print media generated $19.2 billion. Chart: Statista, CC some rights reserved

Sometimes a simple chart says so much.

Like this one, showing a steep decline in ad revenue – plus a monetary migration away from what I’ll call old media (newspapers and magazines) to the web, specifically to Google.

Mind you, it leaves out revenue from newspaper web ads. So perhaps all electronic media are getting more of that particular harvest.

But it’s among various indicators of just how difficult life has become for print media.

Eventually this may re-sort into some new mode of relative stability, something more predictable, that can be built upon, as the old model offered. (Will that be in 5 years, 10 years, 20 years – ever?)

If that happens, those with perfect hindsight can point out which strategies of adaptive change separated survivors from doomed dinosaurs.

Or maybe instability is the new normal. After all, the speed at which juggernauts can rise and fall is startling. Consider: if Google seems dominent and invincible now, only a decade ago that role was held by Microsoft. (We have not even heard of the Google of tomorrow yet.)

These days, change seems to sit atop media’s old three-legged stool of content, audience and revenue.

What a challenge it is to keep all that stable.

While this evolutionary upheaval is up-ending print news and entertainment, it spills over into all sorts of other realms as well.

Are you having to adapt your industry (your life?) to ever-accelerating change?

How’s that going – and what guideposts would you offer to fellow travelers?

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Role of CBC is debated in license renewal hearings

November 19th, 2012 by Lucy Martin

CBC Building, Toronto. Photo: nav1SK, CC some rights reserved

BBC, CBC, PBS, NPR…anyone familiar with broadcasting and news knows what those letters mean and what product they deliver.

What may be harder for In Box readers to grasp is how much more significance “the Beeb” and CBC hold (held?) in Great Britain and Canada, respectively.

In the U.S. – for better or worse – radio and television were pioneered by the private sector. “Public” broadcasting arrived much later in the game.

PBS, CPB, NPR (and hundreds of local public broadcasting organizations) have made important contributions to the landscape of culture and information. But I would argue they have no long history of establishing national identity in the U.S.

It’s almost the opposite in Canada.

In the model of the BBC (but without the mandatory household fees) for decades the CBC linked the country together, often providing the only radio or TV service available in far-flung and remote areas.

As blogged by Brian Mann on Nov 11th,  BBC is caught up in its own corporate crisis at present, after a prominent host (now deceased) was accused of being a serial sexual predator. (Which should have been recognized earlier, but wasn’t. Which could have been exposed, later, but that news report was censored from within.) That’s just the short version and all the dust hasn’t settled yet.

There are no comprable scandals besetting the CBC, other than political quarrels that NPR listeners understand quite well.

Critics of the CBC in Canada say the organization is top-heavy, wasteful with money and is run by an organizational culture that’s biased against conservative values in general and the Conservative Party in particular. This perspective holds that CBC has gone complacent, lazy and lacks focus. Some argue it’s actually no longer needed – the private sector can now fulfill most of the same purposes, etc. (I’m probably leaving a number of other critiques out. People do love to argue about what the CBC is, should be, or isn’t.)

CBC defenders (and there are many) argue with passionate that public broadcasting fills a crucial niche and must be protected. There’s a Friends of the Canadian Broadcasting group with a robust webpage and lobbying effort.

I dare say they see the CBC as flawed too, but in the opposite direction. This side argues the CBC needs to return to its roots, in terms of mission, even if technology is changing how it would do that. Don’t mimic and replicate commercial media. Go back to a culture of service, culture and information with a uniquely Canadian flavor. (Or some such purity.)

Anyway, this all comes up because the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission is holding license renewal hearings (Nov 19-30) in which the CBC gets to present their vision, advocate for permission to makes changes and defend itself against criticism from all comers. (The CRTC is equivalent to the Federal Communications Commission, or FCC, in the U.S.)

It’s not riveting stuff. But it is something media types watch closely.

Tim Harper of the Toronto Star summarizes some of the dynamics from the popular point of view  this column, calling the question of what the CBC should be “the Canadian debate that never ends”.

A more technical overview is summarized in this article from Mediacaster. (If you are interested in more details, the article includes a number of supplemental links on the subject.)

Honestly, I’d hate to try settle this quandary. It may have seemed simple, back in the day. But no more.

Everything is in flux. Revenue is shaky for all news organizations. Tax funding is endangered. Crystal balls are not showing where the twins of journalism and entertainment broadcasting are going – or should go.

There’s a public interest to defend, for sure. But what is it? And who should pay for it?

For example, after budget cuts in this tight economy, the CBC is asking permission to run ads on program services that have historically been ad-free. (CBC TV already has ads.) The CBC says they are not asking for ads on Radio One’s news and info service. Just ads on the music-oriented Radio Two service. (For now at least.)

Ads on public radio, can you imagine how that would go down with NPR listeners? And yet, like it or not, corporate underwriting is well-established. If ads would save the CBC budget, is that a necessary step – or a big sell-out and the beginning of the end?

Private broadcasters can very reasonably ask why the CBC should get tax funds and special government favor, if it follows an ad revenue model that has it walking like a duck, talking like a duck – but not having to compete in the real world, like all the other ducks have to.

That seemingly small proposal to run ads on just the music service drew heated opposition when it was announced in April 2012. The move prompted some supporters of public broadcasting to argue the CBC is straying its core reasons for being:

Jeffrey Dvorkin, former ombudsman for NPR and chief journalist for CBC, was discouraged by what he sees as a continuation of a misguided strategy.

“This is a time for the CBC to renew itself through a deeper engagement with the public and not by continuing the program policies and managerial assumptions that brought it to this point. So far, the CBC seems obstinately oblivious to the challenges that face it,” he said.

The hearings are being covered live on line, over the Cable Public Affairs Channel. CPAC covers matters of public interest (like Parliamentary activity) with funding by private cable companies.

According to Wikipedia, the CBC used to carry Parliamentary coverage and similar hearings in the 1980′s, but stopped in the early ’90′s … due to budget cuts.

An interesting example itself on the question of what’s the best way to deliver content.

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Postscript: Watching some of the live-streaming coverage this morning, I have to say the back and forth is pretty dynamic.

Questions from the public, along the lines of ‘why is it easy to get live streaming on non-CBC sources, but very little of that is available from CBC?’

CBC’s CEO Hubert Lacroix basically replied: the CBC can’t be everything to everyone, and time will tell if that’s a good thing to offer or if the CBC should go in that direction at all.

Questions from CRTC members on the powerful role of unions at CBC and what side-effects that may have on reporting, operations and policy.

Questions about an implied cosy pattern of CBC employees moving between reporting and politics. (Should that be permitted? Well, would current contract and bargaining rules permit that to be restricted?)

How is the CBC Ombudsman selected? To whom does that person report? What happens to recommendations from that office?

It’s all very polite, but includes some hard-hitting exchanges on important concerns.

If this is your cup of tea, you might want to drop in and watch a bit yourself.

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A fallen general, scarlet letter journalism

November 12th, 2012 by Brian Mann

I’ve been absolutely creeped out the last seventy-two hours by the ridiculous, 19th-century tone of the reporting about the scandal that brought down former General David Petraeus, who was serving as CIA director until he abruptly resigned last week.

A mystifying amount of the reporting has been leveled at the question of whether Petraeus’s purported mistress, Paula Broadwell, was a temptress, a seductress, a siren, or an outright harlot.  (Those appear to be our options.)

“The battle over the reputation of Paula Broadwell, who had an affair with General David Petraeus, might as well be taking place on some fifteen-year-old’s Facebook page,” Slate magazine reported, before indulging in much the same gossip through an entire article.

At the same time, a huge amount of ink is being spilled over the mysterious, mystifying, astonishing fact that a powerful man serving his country in the emotional crucible of wartime, while surrounded by admirers — had a sexual affair.

I know, right?  Shocking.

Fred Kaplan, a writer at Slate who I usually admire, indulges in this bit of tomfoolery.

The key to this initial attraction was probably not sexual but rather biographical. Broadwell had once been a West Point cadet, like Petraeus. She’d had training as a parachutist, as Petraeus had in his youth.*

She was obsessed with physical fitness, especially running, as was Petraeus. In short, regardless of gender, Broadwell was exactly the sort of aspiring officer-intellectual that Petraeus was keen to mentor.

Uh-huh.

A report in the Washington Post, meanwhile, spills a lot of ink over the question of Broadwell’s attire, referencing her “usually tight shirts and pants” and suggesting that she was “seemingly immune to the notion of modesty.”

The woman in the affair is portrayed as a corrupting influence who “appeared willing to take full advantage” of Petraeus’s trust, while the general simply “let his guard down.”

So let me get this straight.  Petraeus, one of the most powerful men on the planet, invites a woman to accompany him all over the globe — inviting her on his private plane, allowing her unprecedented access.

He then apparently has consensual (albeit adulterous) sex with said woman.  And the best we can do is suggest that he’s a virtuous warrior and she’s a corrupting whore?

The man who led America’s war-fighting effort in the Near East and chiefed our most important espionage agency was in fact a vulnerable naif, who couldn’t resist the charms of a wily admirer?

It is, not to put too fine a point on it adolescent, sexist and puerile.

There are, of course, some legitimate questions to be asked here.  Did Petraeus or his mistress(es) violate any laws or betray any national security rules?

Did he lie to the oversight panels that are charged with making sure that the nation’s top security officials aren’t vulnerable to blackmail and other skulduggery?

What’s not legitimate is to suggest that this is a tale out of the Old Testament, in which a virtuous and principled man was brought low by a woman of ill-repute.

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What we learn from the ugly side of the BBC

November 11th, 2012 by Brian Mann

Jimmy Saville Source: Wikipedia

Here at the In Box, we’ve grappled at length with the travails of traditionalist organizations caught up in long-running child-sex scandals.

Again and again, the institutional shame isn’t the crime — pedophilia, rape and sexual assault can happen anywhere, anytime– but in the coverup, and the fact that people in positions of power allowed children to be abused for so long.

From the Roman Catholic church to the Church of England to the Boy Scouts, finding the truth has taken far, far too long.

Even the hallowed halls of college sports arenas proved vulnerable to the self-serving coverup.

But it’s important and only fair to acknowledge, and speak bluntly, when similar woeful crimes occur in a modernist, secular institution — and this time the shame of cover-up falls very close to home indeed.

The BBC is sort of a sister organization to America’s public radio network.  NCPR and most other public radio stations in the US carry at least some of the British Broadcasting Corporation’s programming.

For decades, “the Beeb” has been the gold standard of journalistic rectitude, honesty, self-examination and transparency.  Or so we thought.

It turns out the network — along with a lot of respected British institutions — turned a blind eye to the predatory nastiness of Jimmy Savile, a popular radio and television personality who allegedly assaulted hundreds of young girls over a span of three decades.

Network executives turned a blind eye to his behavior and engaged in a cover-up when a documentary about his purported crimes was censored. That bit of skulduggery is still being investigated.

Meanwhile, one of the BBC’s flagship news programs, “Newsnight,” appeared cheerfully eager to report on allegations of child-sex abuse on the part of a British Conservative politicians.

It turns out, the BBC got that story woefully wrong and was forced to apologize “unreservedly for having broadcast this report.”  The network has put Newnight on hiatus, roughly the equivalent of putting “60 Minutes” in a time-out.

The BBC’s top executive, George Entwistle, has resigned, and it appears likely that far more severe consequences will follow.

The take-away is clear.  The leaders of any organization — conservative, liberal, traditional, modern — are vulnerable to thinking that their careers and their institutions are more important than the well-being and safety of children.

That is a sad and astonishing but unavoidable fact about human nature. People who should know better seem remarkably blithe about setting aside the most obvious moral function of any society — protecting kids.

Even organizations that lack the cloistered, hierarchical and sex-averse trappings of many churches and other traditionalist organizations are capable of turning away, of accepting upside-down priorities.

Here in the U.S., the only logical and decent response is to toughen laws criminalizing neglect and cover-ups  that leave children vulnerable.

We should eliminate statutes of limitation and we should approve severe penalties — for individuals and institutions — for those who enable child rape.

Meanwhile, my hope as a journalist is that the BBC will return to its roots as a truth-telling organization, revealing fully and completely how this horror was allowed to go on, and turning over all relevant information to police.

Perhaps with that insight, the proper people can be punished, and we can all learn more about how to prevent this kind of nightmare from recurring.

 

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Amaral leaves Watertown Daily Times

November 8th, 2012 by Brian Mann

Brian Amaral, whose close coverage of the NY 21 race and of Matt Doheny’s candidacy in particular set much of the tone for media treatment of the contest, is stepping down on Friday.  This from his WDT blog, posted in the bleary hours after the returns came in.

I can think of no better time to say goodbye.

My tenure at the Watertown Daily Times is coming to an end on Friday. I’ll still provide updates about the implications of last night’s election, so my voice on this blog will not yet go silent. But sadly, for me, it soon will.

Thank you, loyal reader, for listening to my stories and forgiving my faults. I’ve learned a lot, and I have you to thank.

A special thanks, too, to the editors and sources who had to put up with me.

Amaral moves on to a reporting gig in New Jersey.  We wish him well and thank him for all his help and great reporting.

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NCPR, North Country chaplain honored with national Murrow award

October 9th, 2012 by Brian Mann

 

Last night, I had the pleasure and fun of hanging out with Chaplain Eric Olsen, his wife Susan and my wife Susan at the Grand Hyatt in New York City, where an NCPR documentary “The Road From 9/11″ was honored with a national Edward R. Murrow award.

It was slightly surreal to be back in New York City with Eric.  The last time we visited the city together it was just a few weeks after the terror attack in 2001 and he was in full combat gear.  We drove together through the streets of Manhattan in Eric’s humvee.

This time, it was a night of celebration.  Eric was in his dress uniform.  He gave the invocation at the Murrow Awards, speaking to a ballroom full of media luminaries, talking eloquently about the importance of truth-tellers in our democratic society.

Susan Olsen was also an essential part of telling this story.  While Eric deployed to Iraq — equipped with an NCPR tape recorder so that we could continue telling his story — Susan kept an audio diary from her home in Saranac Lake.

It was a joy to reminisce with the Olsens about these ten years that changed all our lives in ways great and small.  Check out the documentary here.

Now a bit more about the “making of” this documentary.  In the summer of 2010, I was skimming through old audio tape and I realized that I had an amazing archive of tape from the Olsen family’s life over the decade following 9/11.

A documentary threading together the moments of their historic journey seemed like a great idea and Martha Foley, NCPR’s news director, agreed to dedicate half an hour of our morning magazine the 8 O’clock Hour to this one story.

Then came a wrinkle:  Tropical storm Irene hit, which meant that for days and weeks before the 9/11 tenth anniversary, I was literally swamped, scrambling to cover the worst natural disaster to occur during my 15 years in the North Country.

So I found myself writing and producing the documentary in bits and pieces, during rare moments of down-time, usually when I was so exhausted that I could barely think clearly.

I produced it in a weird way, writing, recording and mixing small segments before moving on to think about the next segment.  It’s a crazy way to work and I remember wondering if any of it would make sense.

Something about the fatigue, and maybe the wired energy from covering Irene, came through in the documentary.  When I first heard it on the air — and really that was the first time I heard the entire piece, beginning to end — I was kind of shocked.  And delighted.

To have that effort recognized with a national Murrow award, and to be there to experience it with Eric and Susan, was beyond cool.

One final observation.  NCPR has received a half dozen national Murrow awards during my time at the station.  Once again this year, we were one of only about 60 news organizations in the entire country so honored.

It is an extraordinary thing for a rural network of our size, in the North Country, to punch above our weight like this with such consistency over so many years.

We have a ridiculously talented and dedicated team and a growing staff of reporters.  This is a testament, above all else, to the work of general manager Ellen Rocco and news director Martha Foley.

It’s a rare day when they can’t find the resources to help us make great stories, even when our ideas are big and crazy and would be non-starters for most news organizations our size.

We also have a wildly, crazily, absurdly generous community of supporters who donate all the dollars that translate into moments like last night.

So when you pledge a few bucks to NCPR, remember that you don’t just take home a coffee mug or a tote bag.  You are also there in spirit with us as we all take home an award that connects our efforts to the powerful legacy of Edward R. Murrow.

 

 

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Former VTDigger journalist dies in kayak accident

September 21st, 2012 by Sarah Harris

Alan Panebaker. Photo: @alanpanebaker Twitter profile

I was deeply saddened to hear about Alan Panebaker’s tragic death in a kayak accident in New Hampshire on Wednesday. Alan was VT Digger’s first full-time reporter. He graduated from Vermont Law School in 2011 and reported on the Vermont Statehouse. He was 29 years old.

I met Alan this past spring when I was on a freelance assignment in southern Vermont. He was friendly and collegial, I knew his work. I remember thinking that Alan was type of journalist I hoped to be. In July Alan left VT Digger to work for American Whitewater, a non-profit that works to “conserve and restore America’s whitewater resources.”

You can read tributes to Alan’s life and work at VTDigger and 7 Days.

 

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Morning Read: Post Star editorial embraces massive Adirondack conservation deal

August 10th, 2012 by Brian Mann

Over the years, no one has been a more resolute watchdog of state management of the Adirondack Park than the Glens Falls Post Star.

The newspaper’s editorial page has often cast a skeptical eye on the relationship between key decisions inside the blue line and the influence of environmental groups.

So it’s noteworthy, to say the least, to see the Post Star embracing the massive Finch Pruyn land deal, which at roughly 160,000 acres is the largest single expansion of the forest preserve and of conservation easement protected land in the Adirondacks in a century.

The land is invaluable. It lies in the heart of the Adirondack Park and includes 180 miles of rivers, 175 lakes and ponds and six mountains, along with various bogs, fens and forests and a lovely waterfall, the highest one in the Adirondacks.

We have often criticized the state’s land policies in the Park, but we have nothing but praise for the way the 161,000 acres of former Finch Paper woodlands — purchased by the Nature Conservancy in 2007 — have been handled

Read the full editorial here.

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100 Day Sprint: Is the media overplaying Mitt Romney’s chances? Yes.

August 5th, 2012 by Brian Mann

The news media gets a lot of criticism during presidential contests for focusing on the ‘horse race’ stories, questions about polls and fundraising, rather than issues.

But I’m starting to wonder whether journalists are overplaying the idea that there is a real horse race here at all.

The Washington Post’s top political blogger Chris Cillizza has a lead column this week headlined one article “Obama’s running out of time.” Another of his columns was titled “Obama will need to make history again.”

Peggy Noonan, meanwhile, writing in the Wall Street Journal, argued that Obama’s supposed “You didn’t build that” gaffe is hurting him badly, describing the statement as “the gift that keeps on giving.”

Then there are political maps like the one offered by the New York Times, which shows a (relatively) mild 237-206 advantage for Obama in the current electoral college race, with 95 electoral college votes ranked as “toss-ups.”

I’m beginning to think that journalists — in their eagerness to balance their coverage and play up the drama of a presidential election year– aren’t burying an important story.

Here would be my headline:  As of the first week in August, the Republican challenger is getting beat and badly.  And time is fast running out.

Consider the evidence:  In the widely respected Real Clear Politics summary of the race, Obama already has 247 Electoral College votes solidly in his column or leaning heavily that way – just 23 shy of victory.

Even that assessment downplays (rather than overstates) Obama’s advantages.

Why?  Because RCP argues that Coloradio, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and Ohio are “toss-ups” rather than leaning Obama, despite recent history and Obama-friendly polling trends which have held steady through the entire campaign.

On that New York Times map, meanwhile, Wisconsin is ranked as “toss-up” and North Carolina as “leans Romney.”

This despite the fact that Obama’s advantage in Wisconsin (+6 in the RCP average) is far larger and more consistent than Romney’s advantage in NC (+.8% in the RCP average).

There is also the fact that widely respected political analyst Nate Silver now gives Obama a 70% chance of being re-elected, based on his state-by-state breakdown.

Added to these numerical advantages are growing indications that, despite a significant money advantage, Mitt Romney is struggling as a campaigner and a messenger for his party.

Lead Politico columnist Roger Simon wrote a devastating column last week arguing that Romney “needs to change the narrative, the conversation, the buzz, the impression left by his recent foreign trip that he can’t chew gum and chew gum at the same time.”

Combine that assessment with the fact that, by Politico’s read, Romney is only leading in one of the ten key battleground states that he needs to make this race a real race.

Obama leads by roughly 5% (or more) in four of those states, and by narrower margins in five others.

These facts taken together and framed by the fact that Obama is a sitting incumbent — albeit one burdened by a sour economy — make it hard to escape the idea that this is a decidedly lop-sided contest.

It also appears that, by the end of July, anemic job numbers and the unpopularity of Obamacare simply aren’t disqualifying Obama from a second term, as some analysts expected.

I would also add to the mix the fact that Obama’s team has once again run a ruthless, take-no-prisoners campaign, perhaps even more aggressive (and at times cynical) than in 2008.

So far, any fair-minded observers would have to say that, so far, Chicago looks hungrier and more agile than Boston.

With just three months to go before election day, that’s an important story.

It suggests that the Romney campaign will have to pursue a far more aggressive, risk-taking approach if the GOP hopes to pull off what would now qualify as a dramatic, come-from-behind upset victory.

Romney needs several things to break his way to shift a stubbornly entrenched electorate.   A brilliant convention.  An inspired vice presidential pick.  Or maybe a huge blunder by the Obama campaign.

Some journalists are finally beginning to nod to the underlying dynamic in this race.  Writing in the Washington Post, Dan Balz argues that Romney has put himself in a very deep hole.

The best that can be said about how Mitt Romney fared in July is that he survived. That has only raised the stakes for what the presumptive Republican presidential nominee needs to do in August.

Writing in the Daily Beast, Michael Tomasky goes one further, making the case that the contest is essentially over.

There’s a secret lurking behind everything you’re reading about the upcoming election, a secret that all political insiders know—or should—but few are talking about, most likely because it takes the drama out of the whole business.

The secret is the electoral college, and the fact is that the more you look at it, the more you come to conclude that Mitt Romneyhas to draw an inside straight like you’ve never ever seen in a movie to win this thing.

I think Tomasky overstates the mathematical tilt of this contest, speculating about a “possible coming Obama landslide.”

The point isn’t really that Obama is all that likely to win big.

The point is that, unless the overall dynamic of the race shifts very soon, and Romney flips one or two big states, Obama is very likely indeed to win by at least a narrow margin.

And that’s all it takes.

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