There’s a lot of talk in the media these days — and among some very influential pollsters and pundits — about the possibility of a major Republican revival next year.<\/p>\n
The GOP surge could, in theory, begin this fall with big elections for governor in New Jersey and Virginia, and a smattering of off-season House races, including the one for the North Country’s 23rd district.<\/p>\n
The theory goes that Barack Obama has stumbled into the same political territory that nearly swallowed Bill Clinton in 1994. <\/p>\n
Republicans gained 54 House seats that year, and 8 seats in the Senate.<\/p>\n
Clinton had misfired on health care and on gays in the military. The Democratic congress was also woefully unpopular, thanks in part to a scandal involving overdrafts by lawmakers.<\/p>\n
In 2009, Democrats have once again waded into the complex, controversial debate over America’s health care system.<\/p>\n
Conservatives have used the issue masterfully to stir passion and activism among voters who generally pull the lever for Republicans.<\/p>\n
They’ve also used a series of “wedge” issues to suggest that Mr. Obama is out of touch with mainstream America.<\/p>\n
So. Is past prologue? Will we see a Republican re-emergence comparable to the one led by Newt Gingrich? <\/p>\n
I think the answer is no. Here’s why.<\/p>\n
1. Demographics. The United States is a different country now than it was 15 years ago. More voting districts have more of the kinds of people who tend to vote Democratic, thanks to urbanization and immigration. <\/p>\n
Year by year, the Republican base as currently defined grows smaller. That makes a 1994-style breakout harder and harder to accomplish.<\/p>\n
2. Leadership. In 1994, the GOP was led by one of the most brilliant legislative and political tacticians of the modern era, Newt Gingrich. <\/p>\n
His “Contract with America” was reviled by progressives; but the document offered a coherent agenda that gained broad traction among independent, mainstream voters. <\/p>\n
In this political season, conservative leaders are a lot edgier, a lot more openly ideological. They’re also more divided and less coherent. <\/p>\n
3. The crazy stuff matters. In the 1990s, Gingrich’s revolution began to falter when he shut down the government. A lot of Americans hated that kind of weirdness.<\/p>\n
I know there are many, many Republicans who have no interest in the “birther-Glenn Beck-Rush Limbaugh-the-sky-is-falling” stuff.<\/p>\n
But I think that nervous energy will scare off a lot of independents who might otherwise have been ready for an alternative to the Democrats.<\/p>\n
4. The mountain is high. Democrats have so many seats currently that Republicans could win 40 House districts and still not gain the majority. <\/p><\/blockquote>\n
All of that said, it’s important to note that in 2006 and 2008, Democrats stole away a lot of House districts that are very, very conservative.<\/p>\n
It’s likely that the GOP will claw back a number of those seats, a sort of “correction” to levels that might be more stable.<\/p>\n
Here’s my prediction. By the time election day 2010 is over, Republicans will have retaken 3 U.S. Senate seats and 20 House seats.<\/p>\n
Those are respectable gains, but nothing like 1994, and not nearly enough to shift control of Congress.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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