Let me start by noting that after today’s handicapper, I’ll be doing just four more of these Friday summaries. <\/p>\n
That gives you a sense for just how short the fuse is on the NY-23 special election. (Maybe also a sense of relief for those of you eager for a reprieve from politics…)<\/p>\n
Now to the week’s winners and losers: <\/p>\n
Republican Dede Scozzafava…emerges as the measurable winner. She’s up by seven points over Democrat Bill Owens. (35-28%) <\/p>\n
In politics, it’s always best to be ahead. (How’s that for a great bromide to take us into the weekend?)<\/p>\n
Conservative Doug Hoffman logs in at 16%, nearly twenty points behind Scozzafava.<\/p>\n
Scozzafava also went up finally with a first, positive television spot just this morning, one that will help introduce her to more voters outside her west-North Country stronghold.<\/p>\n
Finally, I caught Scozzafava’s stump speech in Saranac Lake and she was positive and engaging. She’s not a speech-maker or a barn-burner, but the low-key thing works for her.<\/p>\n
She admitted to taking a beating in recent weeks, but declared that “winning is the best revenge.”<\/p>\n
So Scozzafava takes the week…but she also loses it in fairly dramatic fashion. <\/p>\n
A growing number of polls and pundits are indicating that Conservative Hoffman’s right-of-center challenge is doing her real damage.<\/p>\n
As we posted earlier, the Cook Political Report asked bluntly if it’s “too late” for her candidacy and suggests that she needs to “right the ship” fast. <\/p>\n
Thanks in large part to Hoffman, Scozzafava has locked down only about half of the Republican vote in the district. <\/p>\n
If not for her sizable appeal to independents and Democrats, she’d be in huge trouble.<\/p>\n
It’s not clear how she can fix this. No candidate likes to fight a two front war and that’s what she faces in these final weeks. <\/p>\n
Now on to the other candidates:<\/p>\n
Doug Hoffman…continues to rack up big endorsements from conservative groups in Washington, and from name-brand conservatives like Fred Thompson.<\/p>\n
The Club for Growth in Washington has committed to spending $250,000 on TV spots in the next four weeks. That’s a lot of dough.<\/p>\n
His 16% showing is pretty strong for a third-party candidate and the Cook Report called him “viable.” He’s definitely in this thing to win.<\/p>\n
Bill Owens…had a very strong showing in the “third” part of the district, down in Madison, Oneida and Oswego counties. That could be an important data point.<\/p>\n
For a Democrat to be just 7 points down at this point in the race is good news for Owens.<\/p>\n
But his biggest win of the week is that he’s stayed largely above the nasty Scozzafava-Hoffman fray. <\/p>\n
One caveat here is that Owens, too, hasn’t locked down his base: he’s polling less than half of the Democrats, according to the Siena survey. If he were winning more Democrats, this race might be over. <\/p>\n
And that’s a wrap on Week Six. Your thoughts? Share them below.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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