For the first time in this election Democrat Bill Owens is the front-runner, according to this week’s Siena Research Institute poll.<\/p>\n
The Plattsburgh attorney surged in almost every category. Here’s a telling statistic:<\/p>\n
Conservative Doug Hoffman is stripping Republican support from Dede Scozzafava, claiming 27% of the GOP vote.<\/p>\n
But Owens isn’t doing too shabby among GOP voters either. The Democrat is winning 19% of Republicans. <\/p><\/blockquote>\n
Still to come, Owens has a high-profile event next week with President Barack Obama. <\/p>\n
And the Scozzafava campaign has acknowledged that the Democrat will have more money to spend on TV ads down the stretch. Maybe a lot more.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Owens is watching Hoffman beat up on Scozzafava relentlessly. <\/p>\n
While the Conservative trashes the Republican, Owens can concentrate on positive, feel-good TV spots. As a consequence, voter response to his advertisements is running strong.<\/p>\n
Things can change fast in politics, but it’s hard to imagine Bill Owens in a happier position going into these final weeks.<\/p>\n
Now to the other candidates:<\/p>\n
Dede Scozzafava is in a bind. The good news? She’s only down four points. But that reflects a significant sag in almost every demographic.<\/p>\n
Her negatives are up and most voters now say that Owens will outperform her on the important issues, from the economy to Afghanistan. <\/p>\n
But Scozzafava has some positives to take away from an otherwise bruising week. <\/p>\n
First, the Republican National Committee is reportedly stepping in with a big cash infusion. Better late than never is a terrible political strategy, but still. <\/p>\n
Even bigger for Scozzafava is the full-throated endorsement by Newt Gingrich, who urged conservatives to rally behind the Republican Assemblywoman.<\/p>\n
“This special election in New York’s 23rd Congressional District could be the first election of the new Republican Revolution, but we need the momentum to get it started.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
And finally to Doug Hoffman:<\/p>\n
If this weren’t such a great week for Owens, it would be a win for Hoffman. <\/p>\n
This is the week that he escaped the “spoiler” label and became a legitimate contender.<\/p>\n
Yes, he’s still ten points down, but no candidate made bigger gains over the last two weeks than Hoffman.<\/p>\n
And with 16% of voters still undecided, a passionate turn-out by tea-party style voters could turn this into a shocker.<\/p>\n
Hoffman is now leading among independent voters, and he’s leading (albeit narrowly) in the southern chunk of the district that includes Oswego, Oneida and Madison Counties.<\/p>\n
What’s more, the Lake Placid accountant has plenty of money for the final push. <\/p>\n
These are remarkable accomplishments for a political neophyte, a third-party candidate who has built a national coalition almost overnight.<\/p>\n
What do you think? Any predictions for the next couple of weeks? Are you seeing the race differently? Chime in below…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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