With Dick Armey stumping in the district for Doug Hoffman today and Newt Gingrich taking up Dede Scozzafava’s banner, NY-23 has become the latest front in the Republican Party’s civil war.<\/p>\n
It’s a civil war that has already driven out former GOP moderates such as New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (mostly over gun issues) and Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter (who faced a conservative primary challenge that he was unlikely to win).<\/p>\n
The next casualties could easily be Dede Scozzafava and Doug Hoffman, whose blood-feud could send both to the runner-up circle. <\/p>\n
This battle has raged from coast-to-coast, and across the airwaves and blogsites of the conservative movement. The arguments of the two sides go something like this:<\/p>\n
Conservatives insist that it was a lack of ideological purity that allowed the Bush administration to wander so deep into the wilderness. <\/p>\n
Overspending and fuzzy-thinking on immigration angered so many conservative voters that they sat out 2006 and 2008. When their “silent majority” went dormant, Democrats won big.<\/p>\n
Moderates see this very differently. They’re convinced that most Americans really don’t want the hard-right conservative agenda. <\/p>\n
They see the GOP brand as broken not by overspending and a willingness to compromise. <\/p>\n
They think the problem lies with fire-breathers like Glenn Beck, Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, who’ve ratcheted up the culture war to a fever pitch.<\/p>\n
There are elements of truth to both narratives. A party has to stand for something. <\/p>\n
And if the GOP becomes the “Democrats Lite” they have a hard time defining themselves and charting a course back to the majority.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, there’s mounting evidence that in much of the U.S., the conservative agenda and its message carriers are complete turn-offs. <\/p>\n
The latest ABC\/Washington Post poll shows that only 20% of Americans describe themselves as Republicans. <\/p>\n
That’s the lowest number since 1983, and more than a third below the support enjoyed by Democrats.<\/p>\n
If there is a silent majority\/town hall revolution waiting out there, hungry for a conservative resurgence, the pollsters aren’t finding them. <\/p>\n
And demographic trends — more women voters, more immigrants, more people of color — suggest that the conservative dream may be harder and harder to reach every year.<\/p>\n
The Republican-Conservative movement has always been a fragile thing, uniting groups with fairly disparate agendas.<\/p>\n
Even when all the wings and factions were working in tandem, they often won elections by razor-thin margins.<\/p>\n
But now there’s a civil war on. <\/p>\n
While Democrats plug away at building voter enrollments, organizing get-out-the-vote efforts and bit TV campaigns, conservatives and Republicans are blasting at one-another.<\/p>\n
It’s very hard to see how that’s a winning formula. But it’s also increasingly difficult to see how they put this back together again. <\/p>\n
I hear real loathing from the two sides. Within the conservative movement, I hear far more animosity against Scozzafava and the Republican leadership than against Democrat Bill Owens.<\/p>\n
And Scozzafava’s campaign has taken to marching outside Doug Hoffman’s headquarters. <\/p>\n
A final footnote: I can’t make a public prediction now. That’s not kosher for a journalist covering the race. But I’m emailing my best guess to my colleague David Sommerstein.<\/p>\n
After this is over, I’ll let you know if i was close…<\/p>\n
You readers, on the other hand, don’t have to be coy. How do you think this plays out? Is this a Republican debacle, or will purity win out?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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