{"id":11697,"date":"2013-10-04T08:02:39","date_gmt":"2013-10-04T12:02:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/?p=11697"},"modified":"2013-10-04T08:09:52","modified_gmt":"2013-10-04T12:09:52","slug":"its-all-over-for-obama-or-boehner-but-which-one-blinks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/2013\/10\/04\/its-all-over-for-obama-or-boehner-but-which-one-blinks\/","title":{"rendered":"It’s all over for Obama or Boehner. But which one blinks?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"If<\/a>

If he blinks, he’s probably finished. (House Speaker John Boehner from Wikipedia)<\/p><\/div>\n

One of the dynamics shaping this week’s government shutdown — indeed, perhaps the single most important dynamic — is the fact that the nation’s two most important political leaders have their backs squarely set against the wall.<\/p>\n

The top Republican in the US, House Speaker John Boehner, has held tenuously to power ever since the mid-term elections of 2010 swept his party to a majority.<\/p>\n

He has, despite criticism from the right and the left, done a reasonably masterful job of using a weak position to thwart and hamper Barack Obama’s presidency.<\/p>\n

It’s fair to argue whether those goals are laudable.\u00a0 And it’s fair to debate whether Mr. Boehner might have served the country better by passing meaningful legislation — including common sense reforms to the Affordable Care Act.<\/p>\n

But given his fractured caucus, and the increasingly rigid ideological posture of his base, that was probably never in the cards.<\/p>\n

Instead, Mr. Boehner moved with real strategic skill to clip the wings of a Democratic presidency which from November 2008 through the end of 2010 struck many as the second coming of Camelot.<\/p>\n

That agenda didn’t make him popular and it didn’t endear Republicans or Congress to Americans, but it was profoundly effective.<\/p>\n

But that game is now played out.\u00a0 Mr. Boehner’s caucus is hungry not just for clipped wings and minor tactical victories, but for a full-on turkey shoot.<\/p>\n

\"<\/a>

Giving in to Republican demands would effectively end Barack Obama’s presidency. (Photo: Wikipedia)<\/p><\/div>\n

They want Obamacare eviscerated, and they want a divided political culture in Washington to deliver historic conservative gains — changing everything from abortion rules to Social Security entitlements to the Keystone XL pipeline and expanded offshore oil drilling.<\/p>\n

All that with a Democrat in the White House and Democrats holding a solid majority in the US Senate.<\/p>\n

Unless Mr. Boehner can deliver — or at least prove somehow that he’s not the one who blinked — his balancing act as House Speaker is probably at an end.<\/p>\n

On other other end of Pennsylvania Avenue sits another politician with his back against the wall.<\/p>\n

To the dismay of his supporters, Barack Obama turned out long ago to be more of a talker and a compromiser than a fighter.<\/p>\n

In the aftermath of the Bush years, a lot of liberals — and even many centrists — wanted a two-fisted Democrat in the mold of Franklin Roosevelt or Harry Truman.<\/p>\n

Instead, they got a technocrat, an academic, a guy perfectly comfortable working in the gray zone, satisfied with good deals even when they’re not great deals.<\/p>\n

Despite Republican rhetoric to the contrary, the facts just don’t bear out the idea that this White House is a my-way-or-the-highway kind of operation.<\/p>\n

The Affordable Care Act itself is a dogs breakfast of compromise, a mish-mash of liberal goals (bringing healthcare to as many Americans as possible) and conservative strategies (partnering with private insurance companies and adopting an individual insurance mandate).<\/p>\n

But my sense is that Mr. Obama has reached a sort of Rubicon with his party and his own left-leaning base.<\/p>\n

If the President folds, or even gives symbolic ground, under this kind of bare-knuckled tea party pressure, he certainly won’t be driven out of office.\u00a0 That’s not how our non-parliamentary system works.<\/p>\n

But make no mistake:\u00a0 Mr. Obama’s presidency would effectively be over.<\/p>\n

His chief legislative victory, Obamacare, would be dismantled.\u00a0 His position in future negotiations with Republicans would be crippled to an almost laughable degree.\u00a0 His trust-level among Democrats would be flat-line.<\/p>\n

So with two cornered politicians, where do we find ourselves?<\/p>\n

I think most pundits would say that at this point, Mr. Obama has a slight advantage.\u00a0 His position as president is politically more stable than that of Mr. Boehner, who as House Speaker works from an inherently dodgy position of authority.<\/p>\n

And for all their protestations to the contrary, it is Republicans who chose this moment and this ground upon which to fight.\u00a0 Polls show that that decision galls many voters.<\/p>\n

But the outcome is by no means sure and people behave in unpredictable ways when\u00a0 placed between a rock and a hard place.<\/p>\n

These two powerful men know that when the government does finally reopen, one of them will almost certainly be left behind , by their party and by history.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

One of the dynamics shaping this week’s government shutdown — indeed, perhaps the single most […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[7135,13412,20],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11697"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11697"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11697\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11699,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11697\/revisions\/11699"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11697"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11697"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11697"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}