A lot of folks are talking about a new Gallup Poll out this week that seems to indicate that a lot more Americans are conservative (40%) than moderate (36%) or liberal (20%).<\/p>\n
“The conservative number is as high as it’s been in the two decades that Gallup has been asking the question,” wrote William Kristol, editor of the Weekly Standard.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
What’s more, roughly 72% of Republicans describe themselves as conservative. That would seem to mark out some clear ideological markers for the GOP leadership. Again to Kristol’s take:<\/p>\n
The implications of this for the Republican Party over the remaining three years of the Obama presidency are clear: The GOP is going to be pretty unapologetically conservative.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
There are some problems with this framing — or at least some nuances.<\/p>\n
First, one of the reasons that Republicans is more “conservative” is that the GOP is far smaller than it used to be.<\/p>\n
Only 20% of Americans self-identify as Republicans. (That’s about a third fewer than self-identify as Democrats.) <\/p>\n
It stands to reason that the hold-out core would be more conservative, more unified. Thinkers like Kristol think the way to win people back is to be even more conservative.<\/p>\n
But two-thirds of independent voters in America define themselves as either moderate or liberal.<\/p>\n
Yes, there’s been an increase in the number of conservative independents over the last year, but part of that reflects former Republicans leaving the “R” column and joining the “I” column.<\/p>\n
Kristol doesn’t wrestle with the fact that the GOP is historically unpopular, or with the question of how to rebuild the party in relatively progressive states like California and New York<\/p>\n