The latest poll shows Doug Hoffman, the Conservative from Lake Placid, surging. He appears to have eclipsed Republican Dede Scozzafava.<\/p>\n
Democrat Bill Owens still technically leads, by a narrow margin, but it’s a statistical dead heat.<\/p>\n
But a big question remaining is: Who will actually go to the polls and cast a ballot?<\/p>\n
Both of the major parties have solid Get Out The Vote machines established in the 23rd district.<\/p>\n
Democrats under St. Lawrence County’s June O’Neill have established a winning formula of students, labor groups and progressive activists. They’ll be hustling for Bill Owens on Tuesday.<\/p>\n
Republicans have a much older, more deeply rooted network of local government leaders and county chairmen that can send armies of voters to the polls. In theory, they’ll be pushing for Dede Scozzafava.<\/p>\n
The question is — how does Doug Hoffman compete?<\/p>\n
Has the tea party-town hall movement he represents established enough of a grassroots network (or enough raw passion) to counter the major parties’ GOTV effort?<\/p>\n
One of Hoffman’s campaign HQs is located near my house and I see a fair number of cars in the parking lot late into the evening.<\/p>\n
That’s a good sign that his supporters know that kabillions of 30-second TV ads won’t do the trick.<\/p>\n
They’ll also need plenty of hustle on Tuesday. That means building up voter rolls, phone lists, organizing car shuttles, all the drudgery that wins elections.<\/p>\n
With four full days of campaigning to go, it’s possible that Hoffman’s momentum will carry him beyond reach, making this GOTV question moot.<\/p>\n
But if the Conservative is nearing his peak — capturing most of the chunk of voters interested in his small-government traditionalist message — we could go into Tuesday with a dead tie.<\/p>\n
And that means turn-out could decide the whole shooting match.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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