The first, obvious take-away from today’s shocker of a decision by Republican Dede Scozzafava is that Doug Hoffman benefits enormously.<\/p>\n
Scozzafava was harnessing a sizable 29% of the Republican vote, and only 11% of the Democratic vote.<\/p>\n
You can do the math. If Hoffman and Owens harvest equal percentages from their respective columns, the Conservative gains a boost that’s nearly three times as large.<\/p>\n
There are some caveats, though. Some of the folks in both columns may be ideological drifters. <\/p>\n
An example might be Republican women who have drifted into the moderate or even liberal territory now inhabited by Scozzafava. <\/p>\n
Or, they might be Democratic men, who have drifted away from the Obama platform Bill Owens has embraced.<\/p>\n
In short, anyone who hasn’t yet “come home” to Hoffman or Owens might have pretty strong reasons not to do so. <\/p>\n
But the basic math looks great for Hoffman. <\/p>\n
One other development. The Democratic Get Out The Vote Effort powered by union-labor had been divided between Scozzafava (whose husband is a labor organizer) and Owens.<\/p>\n
Union groups have been shifting over to the Democratic column through the day. <\/p>\n
Similarly, Hoffman will now likely enjoy the full firepower of the GOP’s GOTV machine. So, is that a wash? Hard to read.<\/p>\n
Your thoughts? Post away below.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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