There’s a lot of debate out there in the blogosphere about just how well Conservative Party phenom Doug Hoffman fared on Tuesday.<\/p>\n
By the most important standard — going to Congress — he lost. It’s also fair to argue that he helped mightily to elect a Democrat, Bill Owens.<\/p>\n
Owens is now promising to vote for President Obama’s healthcare reform package, which Hoffman repudiated passionately.<\/p>\n
So — why are some conservatives still crowing?<\/p>\n
First, they argue that they humbled and “corrected” the Republican Party, which — in their opinion — erred grievously by nominating moderate Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava.<\/p>\n
Secondly, they claim that Hoffman actually performed very well, emerging from nowhere and nearly winning. <\/p>\n
This second claim deserves a little exploration. <\/p>\n
In fact, Hoffman performed 10-20% below the typical outing of former Rep. John McHugh, a moderate Republican. Hoffman won just 45% of the vote.<\/p>\n
By contrast, Owens won just under 50% of the total vote — roughly a 20% improvement over past Democratic outings.<\/p>\n
In political terms, that’s a massive shift, and obviously not a good one for anyone hoping to get Republicans elected.<\/p>\n
Conservatives suggest that if Scozzafava’s name hadn’t been on the ballot, her 5% of the vote would have gone to Hoffman. I think that’s wishful thinking.<\/p>\n
None of this is meant to detract from the remarkable accomplishments of Hoffman’s five-month political journey.<\/p>\n
But the math raises real questions about whether a purely conservative candidate — one who offers little to Republican moderates — can prevail in NY-23.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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