If House Republicans hope to stage a massive come-back next year, they will have to be able to retake “purple” or conservative-leaning districts in the Northeast.<\/p>\n
Three crucial prizes for the GOP are the North Country districts, NY-20 (Rep. Scott Murphy D-Glens Falls), NY-23(Rep. Bill Owens D-Plattsburgh) and NY-24 (Rep. Mike Arcuri D-Utica).<\/p>\n
In New York state, these may be the best possible shots for Republican hungry for gains; and with the GOP’s stronger-than-expected showing downstate last month, they have a real opening.<\/p>\n
But only if they have strong candidates.<\/p>\n
So far, the most prominent Republican talking about challenging Rep. Murphy is Jim Tedisco, who lost by a hair in the spring special election.<\/p>\n
But Tedisco lives outside the district and was blasted for running a clunky, clumsy campaign. What’s more, his star has fallen substantially in the months since.<\/p>\n
He was stripped of his minority leader’s post in the state Assembly.<\/p>\n
In NY-23, meanwhile, the only challenger who’s expressed interest in pushing back against Rep. Owens is Doug Hoffman, the Conservative insurgent who made November’s election so interesting.<\/p>\n
But Hoffman, too, lives outside the district; and he’s a polarizing figure even within the Republican Party.<\/p>\n
There are real questions, moreover, about his ability as a campaigner. Can he stand up to the rigors of a full, six-month long campaign?<\/p>\n
Remember: In the next go-round, conservative activists won’t have just one race to focus on. It’s hard to imagine Hoffman getting the free media support he enjoyed in the fall.<\/p>\n
Finally, in NY-24, Republicans have a much-stronger potential candidate to challenge Rep. Arcuri. <\/p>\n
Construction entrepreneur Richard Hanna gave Arcuri a surprisingly strong run for his money in 2008.<\/p>\n
Given the shifting political climate, a lot of pundits think this would be a very tough race for Arcuri.<\/p>\n
But so far, Hanna has seemed ambivalent about running. Convincing him to come in may be the NRCC’s most important job in the coming weeks, at least in the Empire state.<\/p>\n
The bottom line? All three of these Democrats know they’re in the cross-hairs. <\/p>\n
They’re raising money and building name recognition and preparing to defend their turf.<\/p>\n
(This factor alone makes 2010 different from 1994, when Democrats were taken by surprise by the GOP’s insurgency.)<\/p>\n
If the GOP hopes to pick one or more of them off, they’ll have to come in soon with strong, well-funded candidates. The clock is ticking.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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