As Chris Matthews put it with a suitably subtle headline: “Time to Panic?” It’s so tempting to go there. Rough environment, Democrats bailing out–it must spell trouble! They’re dropping like flies<\/i>, as more than one report put it. Except. . . . there have been more Republican retirements so far. <\/p><\/blockquote>\n
Which means that there’s little or no chance that the GOP will stage a “revolution” comparable to 1994, when Newt Gingrich stormed to power.<\/p>\n
In that year, Democrats were retiring in droves, their leadership was in disarray, and they were largely unprepared for the Republican onslaught.<\/p>\n
So if 1994 is a bad metaphor for this political climate, is there a better lens for understanding the upcoming political season?<\/p>\n
1996.<\/p>\n
That’s the year that Republicans — cocky and confident after their big wins in the last cycle — lost eight seats, setting the stage for Gingrich’s departure a couple of years later.<\/p>\n
It’s true that the GOP gained Senate seats in 1996, a feat the Democrats won’t match in this mid-season election.<\/p>\n
But that still left Republicans with only 55 seats, about the same amount of power that the Dems are likely to have when 2010 is done.<\/p>\n
In the end, this election year isn’t about the outsider GOP; it’s about the all-powerful Democrats.<\/p>\n
The challenge they face will be very similar to the one faced by Gingrich and his allies: What happens when you dominate Washington and your surging agenda loses some of its luster?<\/p>\n
How do you hold majorities, and maintain momentum, over the long haul?<\/p>\n
Republicans were largely successful at this bit of political aikido, maintaining power for another decade, until the first big Democratic revival in 2006. <\/p>\n
It’s worth noting again that the GOP held power in part by casting off many of the leaders who helped start their revolution. Gingrich went. So did Sen. Trent Lott. <\/p>\n
Will Democrats be as nimble and aggressive as the post-1996 Republicans? Will Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid step aside? <\/p>\n
Those are the big questions of this election year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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