In 2008, Democrats won the White House and solidified one of the largest Congressional majorities in US history. <\/p>\n
Voters essentially handed the Republican Party a nationwide pink slip, with GOP candidates falling short even in relatively safe bastions like the North Country.<\/p>\n
But now a growing number of pundits are saying that Democrats could suffer a similar massive rebuke just 24 months later.<\/p>\n
It is now conceivable that the Dems could drop as many as 55 House seats — casting them into the minority — and lose control of the Senate.<\/p>\n
That kind of loss would effectively mirror the party’s setbacks in 1994.<\/p>\n
But there are two key differences.<\/p>\n
First, this Republican Party is far more conservative than even the culture warriors of Newt Gingrich’s “Contract with America” insurgents.<\/p>\n
For voters to embrace (re-embrace?) this very right-wing movement so quickly after rejecting it soundly would represent one of the great pendulum swings in US history.<\/p>\n
Secondly, it’s still very difficult to understand why the pendulum is swinging so sharply.<\/p>\n
President Obama and Congressional Democrats have done more or less what they promised to do during the 2008 campaign.<\/p>\n
They haven’t suffered major scandals, at least outside the gossip-driven pages of the conservative media — where questions about birth certificates and Mr. Obama’s religious orientation flourish.<\/p>\n
Indeed, Republican politicians may still have a slight edge in terms of sleaze, with Nevada’s Senator and South Carolina’s governor grabbing headlines for infidelities.<\/p>\n
Yes, the stimulus and the health care bill were controversial, but most independent policy experts see them as relatively moderate approaches to very real problems.<\/p>\n
So what gives? So why are Democrats losing so much support so quickly? <\/p>\n
Honestly, I don’t think anyone has a clear answer to that question. But here are five obvious possibilities.<\/p>\n
1. It’s the economy, stupid. Americans are still scared, with millions of us still unemployed. And we’re a famously impatient people. <\/p>\n
We want jobs now and we’re willing to punish Mr. Obama’s party for failing to deliver. <\/p>\n
What else can he do to boost employment? Voters don’t care. Just do something. Now.<\/p>\n
2. Americans are still viscerally uncomfortable with the idea of big government, and bigger deficits — even when we are demanding that Washington do more for us. <\/p>\n
Yes, we want Mr. Obama to deliver healthcare and boost employment. But we don’t want more government spending or higher taxes. <\/p>\n
How can he accomplish both those things? Voters don’t care. Just do it. Now.<\/p>\n
3. Change is scary. For the first time in our history we have a black man in the White House and a woman as Speaker of the House. <\/p>\n
Those profound cultural changes have come at a time when the country is in serious trouble. For millions of Americans, that’s a frightening combination.<\/p>\n
4. Republicans are just better politicians. <\/p>\n
The GOP has trounced the White House again and again in framing the debate over everything from the stimulus (“socialism”) to the healthcare bill (“more socialism”).<\/p>\n
Unless the Democrats find a way to tell their story better, they’re finished.<\/p>\n
5. Conservatives are passionate voters, while liberals are lazy.<\/p>\n
The truth is, conservatives have always out-hustled liberals at election time. <\/p>\n
Most Democratic constituencies — young people, Hispanics, single women — don’t vote with much zeal. (African Americans are an exception, voting at high rates.)<\/p>\n
That changed in 2008, in large part because voters were so angry at George Bush, and also because Mr. Obama inspired people.<\/p>\n
But those big liberal crowds have faded away, replaced in the streets by fired-up tea partiers. <\/p>\n
In 1994, millions of urban liberals and moderates sat on the sidelines while conservatives — many of them in rural America — swept to a majority.<\/p>\n
It now appears that the same could very well happen again.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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