{"id":18518,"date":"2014-12-19T06:44:27","date_gmt":"2014-12-19T11:44:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/?p=18518"},"modified":"2014-12-19T06:44:27","modified_gmt":"2014-12-19T11:44:27","slug":"democrats-surprisingly-still-in-the-drivers-seat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/2014\/12\/19\/democrats-surprisingly-still-in-the-drivers-seat\/","title":{"rendered":"Democrats, surprisingly, still in the driver’s seat"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"obamainoval_375\"<\/a>A few weeks ago, it seemed like a surging Republican Party had effectively gutted the last vestiges of momentum that Barack Obama carried into the White House way back in 2009.<\/p>\n

The GOP now holds commanding majorities in Congress and in a majority of state capitals across the US.\u00a0 But as we pivot into 2015 and the looming presidential race, it’s Democrats who are still driving the national conversation.\u00a0 Here’s why.<\/p>\n

Big states, big governors<\/strong><\/p>\n

First, Democratic governors still hold executive power in a lot of key places.\u00a0 Big-state leaders like Jerry Brown in California and Andrew Cuomo in New York can shape the agenda in powerful ways, boosting issues like gun control and climate reform that the GOP would like to sideline permanently.<\/p>\n

The truth is that blue states — California, Massachusetts, New York — still serve as harbingers for national policy in ways that big red states like Texas can’t match.<\/p>\n

\"Gov.<\/a>

Gov. Andrew Cuomo delivers the 2013-14 Budget Address in January, 2013. Photo: Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s office<\/a>, via Flickr<\/p><\/div>\n

Cuomo, now entering his second term, has already permanently shifted New York’s political culture, locking in same-sex marriage, enacting one of the toughest gun control measures in the country, and now effectively banning fracking for natural gas.<\/p>\n

Then there’s the guy in the Oval Office<\/strong><\/p>\n

If governors matter, the Presidency matters even more.<\/p>\n

Since the election, Barack Obama has reminded Washington DC that when push comes to shove the White House wields extraordinary power.\u00a0 Republicans have worked tirelessly to marginalize Obama, portraying him as weak, feckless and muddled.<\/p>\n

But initiatives like the immigration policy unveiled after the election, the push for more strenuous EPA action on carbon pollution, and now the normalization of relations with Cuba have kept the GOP on the defensive — reacting rather than leading.<\/p>\n

Obama has also reshaped the nation for years, maybe decades to come, by successfully appointing a huge number of judges — nearly 300 so far, roughly a third of the entire Federal judiciary<\/a> — and by naming two members of the US Supreme Court.<\/p>\n

The Fox News mantra that Obama is a bantam weight who got in way over his head begins to look silly, especially as policies like the White House’s sanctions on Russia gain credibility.<\/p>\n

To reshape the dialogue, you need something to say<\/strong><\/p>\n

Which brings me to my next reason that the GOP is still in the back-seat, even as they usher in massive majorities: \u00a0 They lack a coherent, popular national agenda.<\/p>\n

Yes, Republicans have been phenomenally successful at mobilizing anger against Obama and his policies — particularly the Affordable Care Act and immigration.\u00a0 But their leaders have failed to come up with a clear set of ideas or plans to replace the Democratic road-map.<\/p>\n

Contrast the current situation with Newt Gingrich’s Republican insurgency in the 1990s.\u00a0 The “Contract With America” gave all sides a clear understanding of what they hoped to accomplish with their majority.\u00a0 But the current slate of conservative leaders are unified by only a single idea:\u00a0 opposition to the Democratic president.<\/p>\n

It will be difficult for the GOP to shift out of their “we all hate Obama and that’s good enough for us” crouch.\u00a0 Why?\u00a0 Because many Republicans actually disagree starkly with one-another about what the country should do next.<\/p>\n

A lot of Republicans have effectively signed on to “Obamacare,” and now support amending the flawed policy rather than trying to repeal it wholesale.\u00a0 Many party leaders are convinced that immigration reform is needed — including pathways to citizenship for undocumented workers — an idea that rank-and-file conservatives and AM talk radio hosts loathe.<\/p>\n

To seize the agenda, Republicans need to seize the White House<\/strong><\/p>\n

Which bring me to my final and biggest reason that Democrats are — if not in a rosy place — at least still in a strong position to control events over the next two years.\u00a0 Here it is:\u00a0 They have a very strong shot at holding the White House for another 8 years.<\/p>\n

The reasons for this advantage are largely strategic.\u00a0 Democrats begin the next presidential race with a very strong lock on states that hold between 242 and 248 electoral college votes.\u00a0 That’s just shy of the 270 needed to win the White House.<\/p>\n

Republicans, meanwhile, begin with a lock on only about 177 electoral college votes.\u00a0 What that means is that the GOP candidate, whoever that turns out to be, has to be darned near perfect to win.<\/p>\n

And if Democrats can flip one more big state, like Florida, into their column, it’s game over.<\/p>\n

So there it is in a nutshell.\u00a0 In American politics, executive power matters.\u00a0 Executive actions, the bully pulpit and the veto pen are forces to be reckoned with.\u00a0 So long as Democrats hold many of the highest seats in the land, and so long as Republicans aren’t offering a clear and forceful alternative to their ideas, the party of Obama and Cuomo will wield powerful sway.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A few weeks ago, it seemed like a surging Republican Party had effectively gutted the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[20],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18518"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18518"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18518\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18525,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18518\/revisions\/18525"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18518"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18518"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18518"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}