This summer will decide the course of American politics for the next decade. <\/p>\n
I know — that sounds like hyperbole. And it’s sour news for anyone weary of the constant melodrama of our nation’s civic life.<\/p>\n
Especially among liberals, there was a sense that 2008 was the Year of Change. <\/p>\n
It seemed that victory might mean a period of calm, of business-as-usual, of something like normalcy.<\/p>\n
Turns out, not so much. <\/p>\n
The election of Barack Obama and massive Democratic majorities raised to a fever pitch the culture war that has been simmering for decades.<\/p>\n
The vision of a black president and a woman, Nancy Pelosi, as Speaker of the House, symbolize the tectonic shifts taking place in our society.<\/p>\n
Democrats are also pushing an ambitious agenda, attempting to roll back much of the laissez-faire policy that might loosely be defined as Reaganism.<\/p>\n
Republicans, meanwhile, have doubled down on their embrace of a kind of rural-white traditionalism.<\/p>\n
Iconic figures like Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, and Mike Huckabee have barnstormed the country, promising to reclaim the ‘real’ America.<\/p>\n
For a time, it seemed like this Republican backlash would be unstoppable. <\/p>\n
Polls show that many Americans are deeply disconcerted with the direction of the country, and with Mr. Obama’s leadership.<\/p>\n
But the GOP may have gone too far, passing an immigration law in Arizona that even many conservatives describe as ‘draconian.’<\/p>\n
They have also decided to block reforms of the banking system that swindled millions of American, while helping to push our economy to the brink.<\/p>\n
Conservatives, meanwhile, have pushed ever-more-conservative candidates, convinced that voters will accept candidates who — to cite the example of JD Hayworth in Arizona — have conflated homosexuality with bestiality.<\/p>\n
It’s unclear whether that kind of hard line will play outside of the GOP’s strongholds.<\/p>\n
Why is this campaign season’s dust-up so significant over the long haul?<\/p>\n
If voters embrace this version of the GOP, it will almost certainly signal the final, unambiguous end of Republican moderatism.<\/p>\n
What’s more, in many cases it will likely be more moderate Democrats who are defeated in November, including Harry Reid and Blanche Lincoln.<\/p>\n
The result could very well be a narrowly divided Congress, in which the two parties are far more divided and intractable than what we see today.<\/p>\n
Of course, there are still six months to go before the ballots are cast – that’s an eternity in politics.<\/p>\n
And it appears that Democrats have suddenly decided that passing legislation — from financial reform to immigration reform — will boost their chances.<\/p>\n
That introduces a lot of new variables.<\/p>\n
But by late summer we should have a clear snapshot of the next America. <\/p>\n
Will it be a country where Democrats hold a solid, defensible mandate to govern?<\/p>\n
Or will it be an ideological hothouse, with liberals and conservatives preaching two very different visions of our future?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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