The Republican Party’s biggest hope for gaining real power in 2010 is in the US Senate.<\/p>\n
Currently the GOP suffers from a 59-to-41 deficit, though conservative members of the Democratic caucus often defect on key votes.<\/p>\n
Republicans need to win additional nine seats to tie.<\/p>\n
But even that would likely allow Democrats to control the agenda, with Vice President Joe Biden casting decisive votes.<\/p>\n
Can Republicans pick up ten seats — or perhaps come close and then peel off one or two center-right politicians, such as Joe Lieberman or Ben Nelson?<\/p>\n
Maybe. But it’s a long shot.<\/p>\n
The highly respected poll-watching site FiveThirtyEight.com is predicting that the GOP has a better than 50-50 shot at winning seven seats now held by Democrats.<\/p>\n
The wrinkle — and the tough-to-read variable — is that the battleground for the Senate is shifting in weird ways.<\/p>\n
Seats that were once viewed as iron-clad Democratic strongholds — Illinois and Delaware — now appear to be vulnerable.<\/p>\n
Will they go the way of Massachusetts and New Jersey? That seems increasingly likely.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, two solid Republican states — Arizona and Florida — could be vulnerable to Democratic (or independent) takeover because of GOP infighting.<\/p>\n
It’s entirely possible that Republicans could score some dramatic wins, but fumble their shot at a majority.<\/p>\n
One interesting development is just how dull New York’s Senate contest has turned out to be.<\/p>\n
Once viewed as a prime take-over target, Kirsten Gillibrand has voided a serious challenge.<\/p>\n
Bottom line? Despite some strong poll numbers, a GOP takeover still looks like a long shot.<\/p>\n
But there are six full months of campaigning still to go.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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