First a nod to those of you who hate horse-racey blog posts.\u00a0 This one ain’t for you.\u00a0 Check back later.<\/p>\n
For anyone still tuned in, I’ve been trolling through polls, individual battleground district reports, and newspaper accounts from across the country.<\/p>\n
Here’s my late-spring take on the 2010 race:\u00a0 It’s tightening significantly.<\/p>\n
For weeks, a lot of observers have been predicting a major blow-out that favors Republicans.\u00a0 And the anti-incumbency mood is certainly fierce right now.<\/p>\n
That naturally hits the party in power hardest.<\/p>\n
But a couple of trend-lines look pretty good for the Democrats.\u00a0 Barack Obama’s approval ratings have been creeping upward lately.\u00a0 Fox News’s latest survey<\/a> puts the President at 48% positive and 43% negative.<\/p>\n Those aren’t ticker-tape parade numbers, but neither are they blow-out bad.\u00a0 If the White House can trend above 50% through the summer, a lot of Democrats will breathe easier as they muddle toward November.<\/p>\n A new CBS poll<\/a> also found that more Americans are comfortable with where the economy is going.<\/p>\n Forty-one percent of Americans now say the economy is improving, up eight points from April and more than at any time during this recession. Just 15 percent think the economy is getting worse, according to the poll, conducted April 28 – May 2.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n If those numbers continue to improve (and days like today’s Wall Street plunge won’t help…) that’s another boost for the Dems.<\/p>\n Another significant development is the narrowing of the “enthusiasm” gap that Republicans enjoyed through the spring.<\/p>\n Just a few weeks ago, 54% of GOP voters said they were “very enthusiastic” about voting in November, compared with\u00a0 just 35% for Democrats.<\/p>\n For Dems, that was a devastating state of affairs in a mid-term vote, when turnout is expected to be low.<\/p>\n But now, according to Gallup<\/a>, only 43% of Republicans say they’re still fired up, compared with 33% for Dems.\u00a0 Still an advantage, to be sure, but not at the same blowout level.<\/p>\n