In his final, election-day poll, Utica-based pollster John Zogby delivers tough news to the McCain campaign.<\/p>\n
Politico reported this week that the McCain camp waits eagerly for the latest poll numbers, looking for signs of a tightening race.<\/p>\n
Zogby says that hasn’t happened.<\/p>\n
“Obviously anything can happen on Election Day, but Americans want change and it seems very clear that the historic candidacy of Sen. Obama defines that change.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
Zogby raises the possibility of a “stunning victory” for Obama. If that happens, the pollster says it will be driven by four key groups:<\/p>\n
Independents – Obama leads by 24%.
Women – the Democrat up by 20%
Moderates – a 32% advantage for the Dem
Newly registered voters – 30% Obama tilt<\/p><\/blockquote>\n(Zogby doesn’t mention African American or Hispanic voters, but those demographics also have a heavy Obama lean.)<\/p>\n
McCain holds some advantages, leading the 55-69 age group by half a percentage point and holding a 7% advantage among white voters. <\/p>\n