Here’s how bad things are for New York’s Republicans:\u00a0 They lost power in the state Senate two years ago and the place has been a train wreck ever since.<\/p>\n
Even some Democrats I talk to lament the good old days when Joe Bruno was running the place — despite the fact that he was apparently lining his pockets in the process.<\/p>\n
But the GOP appears further from retaking a majority than ever.\u00a0 How come?<\/p>\n
Mostly, it’s just the simple fact that there are heaps and piles and mounds more Democrats in New York than Republicans.<\/p>\n
Even in Upstate New York and the North Country, Democrats now win handily — case in point being Darrel Aubertine.<\/p>\n
Republicans held off this tide of blue votes through two forces:\u00a0 gerrymandering and incumbency.<\/p>\n
Critics have described New York state’s Senate map as a “Republican protection program” designed to elect as many GOP lawmakers as possible.<\/p>\n
But even that’s not working any more.<\/p>\n
And now the seniority problem is haunting them as well, as more of those seniors are shuffling toward the door.\u00a0 Dale Volker, Vincent Leiball and Thomas Morahan are all retiring.<\/p>\n
In each of those races, the Democrats have a decent chance of capturing the seat.<\/p>\n
Obviously, this one-party rule thing isn’t working out so well.\u00a0 And it has been increasingly difficult for North Country leaders to get their issues on the Albany agenda.<\/p>\n
But it’s hard to see how Republicans turn the tide.\u00a0 One possibility is to reinvent itself as a truly moderate, Rockefeller-style party:\u00a0 pro-choice, pro-same-sex marriage, but fairly fiscally conservative.<\/p>\n
That seems to have worked pretty well for folks like Rudy Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg, both of whom were elected mayor of New York City as Republicans.<\/p>\n
But it’s tough these days for any Republican to tack toward the left.\u00a0 The verb ‘scozzafava’d’ was, after all, coined right here in the North County.<\/p>\n
Any Republican lawmaker proposing that kind of political triangulation would draw immediate fire from the Conservative Party.<\/p>\n
What are the alternatives?\u00a0 The hope in Republican circles appears to be that Democrats will screw it up so badly — do such a horrendous job — that voters will have no alternative but to put them back in power.<\/p>\n
So far that doesn’t appear to be working out very well.\u00a0 Governor David Paterson is widely disliked — but an overwhelming majority of New Yorkers say they want another Democrat to fill his shoes.<\/p>\n
The window for Republicans to win back a little power appears to be closing.\u00a0 After the 2010 census, the state Senate map will be redrawn.<\/p>\n
Lines that are currently very favorable to the GOP will, at the very least, be drawn more neutrally.<\/p>\n
But Democrats are unlikely to eschew a little gerrymandering of their own.\u00a0 Despite their horrible track record, the Senate Democrats could be on track for even bigger majorities in the years ahead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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