For twenty years or so, conservatives have been losing ground in America’s cities and inner-ring suburbs.<\/p>\n
But until recently, Republicans still managed to win some big-state political fights through a combination of pragmatism, flexibility, and clever opportunism.<\/p>\n
Moderates like George Pataki in New York, Charlie Crist in Florida and Arnold Schwarzenegger hoisted the GOP flag over some of the bluest state capitals in the nation.<\/p>\n
But even in this supposedly Republican year, there are signs that the GOP’s fortunes may be fading once again in America’s most populous states.<\/p>\n
First a little background.\u00a0 Roughly a third of the nation’s population — about 112 million people — is clumped in just five mega-states:\u00a0 California, Texas, New York, Florida and Illinois.<\/p>\n
Currently, there are Republican governors in two of those states:\u00a0 Schwarzenegger in California and Rick Perry in Texas.\u00a0 (Crist, elected as a Republican, recently quit the GOP and declared himself an Independent.)<\/p>\n
Those states boast 158 members of the House of Represesentatives.\u00a0\u00a0 But only 63 of the big-state congress-members– just under 40% — are Republicans.<\/p>\n
In the US Senate, the GOP has only three Big 5 lawmakers, two from Texas and one from Florida.<\/p>\n
A lot of that underperformance reflects the simple reality that Republicans don’t compete well among minorities, young people, or urban voters.<\/p>\n
Those groups make up a big chunk of\u00a0 the population in our super states, and a growing slice of the American population overall.<\/p>\n
But it’s important to remember that a quarter century ago, the GOP did just fine in those places.\u00a0 California launched the career of Ronald Reagan.\u00a0\u00a0 And New York state was the home base for Alphonse D’Amato.<\/p>\n
Yet these days, the Empire state’s GOP can barely\u00a0 muster credible statewide candidates, let along big powerhouses like Rudy Giuliani and Pataki.<\/p>\n
And there are signs that things could get a lot worse for Republicans, in part because the party continues to swing to the right.<\/p>\n
In Florida, Governor Charlie Crist was pushed aside in his bid to win a US Senate seat that had been held by a Republican.<\/p>\n
Marco Rubio, a staunch conservative and a tea party favorite, pummeled Crist so badly in the GOP primary that Crist jumped ship, breaking with Republicans.<\/p>\n
As an Independent, Crist has been courting Democrats and now he’s running 11 points ahead of Rubio.\u00a0 (Rubio is attracting only 31% of the vote, according to the latest poll<\/a>.)<\/p>\n Meanwhile, in Texas, staunch conservative Governor Rick Perry — who last year raised the idea of secession — suddenly finds himself locked in a dead-tie race with Houston Mayor Bill White, a Democrat.<\/p>\n White is winning independents by a 6% margin in that contest.<\/p>\n “Republicans have held the Texas governorship since George W. Bush ousted the late Ann Richards 16 years ago,” notes Public Policy Polling<\/a>.\u00a0 “But it looks like Bush\u2019s successor, Rick Perry, is facing by far the closest contest with a Democratic challenger during that time.”<\/p>\n The GOP hopes to reverse this big-state slide with key victories in California and Illinois.<\/p>\n In California — where Democrats were once viewed as untouchable — Republicans are running neck and neck<\/a> in both the Senate and Governor’s races.<\/p>\n