A summer reaches its midway point, we’ll be turning more and more to the North Country’s big political campaigns — primarily the fight by Democrats Scott Murphy (Glens Falls) and Bill Owens (Plattsburgh) to keep their jobs.<\/p>\n
Both men are expected to face stiff challenges in districts that were once seen as Republican strongholds.<\/p>\n
The background climate for the 2010 midterms is distinctly hostile for Democrats, for several reasons.\u00a0 Republican voters are clearly more energized and passionate.<\/p>\n
Also, because Democrats have been winning lately in a lot of unexpected places (like the North Country) they’ll be playing defense in fairly conservative rural and exurban districts.<\/p>\n
Finally, the party in power almost always loses seats in midterms — especially during a time when jobs are scarce.<\/p>\n
A lot of pundits are predicting a full-scale blow-out, the kind of 1994 surge that can realign national politics.\u00a0 I’m still skeptical.\u00a0 Here’s why.<\/p>\n
1.\u00a0 I’m not convinced that Republicans have succeeded at nationalizing this race.\u00a0 Yes, a lot of people are concerned about Barack Obama’s policies.\u00a0 Will that be the key issue when voters decide whether to give Reps. Owens and Murphy another term?<\/p>\n
If Democrats can turn the mid-term into a seat-by-seat trench battle, they’ll lose a lot of races — maybe a couple of dozen — but still maintain a comfortable majority in the House.<\/p>\n
2.\u00a0 I’m not convinced Republicans have the organization or money to capitalize on Democratic weakness.\u00a0 Two years after the implosion of the GOP, it remains a party divided.<\/p>\n
RNC chairman Michael Steele is a deeply polarizing figure.\u00a0 Even some right-leaning critics say House minority leader John Boehner is a bit of a slacker.<\/p>\n
Some Republican leaders, including Sen. Lindsay Graham, are openly wishing for the early demise of the tea party movement.\u00a0 Not exactly a disciplined message machine there…<\/p>\n
3.\u00a0 Democrats know what’s coming.\u00a0 In 1994, they were taken off-guard.\u00a0 In 2010, Democratic leaders are spending tens of millions of dollars on high-tech get-out-the-vote efforts to try to limit their losses.<\/p>\n
They might even win two or three House seats in Republican districts that voted for Barack Obama in 2008.<\/p>\n
4.\u00a0 The Democrats have governed more or less from the middle.<\/p>\n
I know, I know — this is the one that people will see as controversial.\u00a0 A lot of conservatives are convinced that Obama-Pelosi-Reid is synonymous with Marx-Engel-Mao.<\/p>\n
But when you look at the health bill (chock full of Republican ideas) the surge in Afghanistan (embraced by conservatives), the bank bail-outs (launched under President Bush and now showing tidy profits) and even the stimulus bill (praised by many Republicans, when talking about Federal projects in their home districts), it’s hard to see the last two years as Capital R Radical.<\/p>\n
Yes, the tea party folks are angry.<\/p>\n
But will Democratic policies spark the kind of groundswell that will get soccer moms and commuter dads voting in big numbers for Republicans?\u00a0 As I say — I’m skeptical.<\/p>\n
There is one area where Democrats remain vulnerable, and that’s the apparent apathy of many young and minority voters. If the Democratic Party base sits this election out, Republicans won’t need a surge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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