As the weeks grind by, I’m hearing more back-room chatter from Republicans that this election may be slipping through their fingers, despite the apparent vulnerability of Democratic Rep. Bill Owens.<\/p>\n
Mr. Owens won a special election victory less than a year ago, inching across the finish line by the narrowest of margins.\u00a0 Since then, Democratic policies and President Barack Obama have lost some luster with voters.<\/p>\n
So why aren’t Republicans capitalizing?\u00a0 Put bluntly, they despise and distrust each other.<\/p>\n
When I talk to GOP stalwarts — the kind of folks who are generally supporting Mr. Doheny — they express open skepticism about their ability to partner with the tea party activists who are supporting Doug Hoffman.<\/p>\n
Nine out of eleven county committees have backed Mr. Doheny, often uncorking harsh criticism on Mr. Hoffman, his familiarity with their communities and issues.<\/p>\n
Will they pivot to support Mr. Hoffman enthusiastically if he wins?\u00a0 It’s hard to imagine.<\/p>\n
Mr. Hoffman, meanwhile, has refused to commit to stepping out of the race if he loses the Republican primary.\u00a0 That raises the specter of another three-way race, with a divided conservative vote.<\/p>\n
Mr. Hoffman’s most prominent regional backer, UNYTEA’s Mark Barie, has blasted the GOP as ineffectual and suggested that party leaders have lost their way.<\/p>\n
That’s a lot of friendly fire that conservatives are directing at one-another, without much ammo left over for Mr. Owens.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, some of the Republican Party’s most prominent figures are making nice with the Democrat.<\/p>\n
Plattsburgh Mayor Don Kasprzak praised his efforts in Washington, while Moriah supervisor Tom Scozzafava openly endorsed Mr. Owens’ re-election bid.<\/p>\n
I know some In Box readers are impatient with this kind of horse-racey stuff — and I promise that we’ll talk a lot more about the issues as the weeks go on.\u00a0 But here’s why this stuff matters.<\/p>\n
If this election begins to look like another embarrassing circus for Republicans, national leaders — and big donors — will keep their distance.<\/p>\n
That will make it much harder for Mr. Doheny or Mr. Hoffman to gather the resources needed to battle Bill Owens down the stretch.<\/p>\n
Issues don’t matter if you can’t afford to get your message out, or rally voter drives, or pay the kind of staff that’s needed across a vast congressional district.<\/p>\n
If Conservatives and Republicans do want to make this race competitive, they need a serious sit-down meeting soon, one that leads to the rebuilding of a workable coalition.<\/p>\n
One could imagine meaningful concessions being made on both sides. If the county committees withdraw their endorsements for Mr. Doheny, for example, would Mr. Hoffman commit to stepping aside if he loses the primary?<\/p>\n
This kind of amity may be impossible at this point.\u00a0 After last year’s disastrous special election effort, personalities, philosophies, and egos have become bitterly entangled.<\/p>\n
Both sides seem firmly committed to their fratricidal battle, despite the threat of permanent marginalization.<\/p>\n
And some of the issues that divide them are significant.\u00a0 The fact that Mr. Doheny supports a woman’s right to choose an abortion during the first trimester of pregnancy disqualifies him from consideration in the eyes of some conservatives.<\/p>\n
But unless some kind of accord is reached, this district that was once a GOP stronghold may go almost by default to the Democrats.<\/p>\n
After another term in office, Mr. Owens’ incumbency (and the congressional redistricting that’s likely to come after the 2010 census) could make him nearly impossible to dislodge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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