By most measures, this is likely to be a good — and maybe a great — year for Republicans.\u00a0 But it might be a terrible year for the Republican Party.<\/p>\n
A couple of years ago, after the back-to-back debacles of the 2006 and 2008 election cycles, some pundits were opining about the end of the GOP, or its contraction into a narrow, regional movement.<\/p>\n
That was premature and simplistic, to say the least, but it wasn’t entirely off-base.<\/p>\n
What we’ve seen in the months since is both a re-energizing of the conservative movement and a profound and perhaps irreconcilable splintering of its core.<\/p>\n
Before I go on, let me sketch briefly the way modern American political parties work.\u00a0 For the better part of a century now, the Democratic and Republican movements have been “big tent” affairs.<\/p>\n
The make-up and balance of the political leadership, agenda, and regional tilt of the parties changed dramatically from decade to decade.<\/p>\n
(Southern Democrats became Southern Republicans, while moderate Republicans in the Northeast became moderate Democrats in the Northeast…)<\/p>\n
But the parties themselves had strong central institutions, iconic leaders, and some shared core principles.\u00a0 They also pooled their money and other resources fairly effectively, with stronger factions able to shore up weaker ones.<\/p>\n
That formula still pretty much holds true for the Democrats.\u00a0 Nancy Pelosi, Barack Obama and Harry Reid are very different politicians, with different philosophies and constituencies.<\/p>\n
But at the end of the day, they can sketch a pretty clear line around the policy ideas and shared mythologies that unite them. When pressed, liberal Democrats lend aid and comfort to conservatives, and vice versa.<\/p>\n
They can point to outsized political icons — Bill and Hillary Clinton, Ted Kennedy, Franklin Roosevelt, etc. — as widely accepted leaders.<\/p>\n
I’m not sure that’s true anymore for the GOP.<\/p>\n
Consider for a moment that the leader of the Republican National Committee is a figure largely scorned and marginalized by most elected Republicans.<\/p>\n
Consider that the GOP’s last two presidents — George Bush Sr. and Jr. — are largely derided and dismissed within their own party’s rank-and-file.<\/p>\n
Consider that the tea party movement (itself deeply divided along regional and ideological lines) has been working aggressively to defeat dislodge sitting Republican lawmakers.<\/p>\n
Consider that some of the most active organizers of the Republican movement are now deliberately avoiding partnerships with core GOP organizations, fundraising and developing agendas independently.<\/p>\n
Consider that there is no clear consensus about who should lead the GOP, in Congress or nationally.<\/p>\n
Significant percentage of the conservative voter-base are devoted to fringe figures, including Ron Paul and Sarah Palin, who appear to have little chance of rebuilding the big tent.<\/p>\n
What’s more, the clearest and loudest conservative voices now operate outside the Republican Party proper.<\/p>\n
Opinions differ on the agendas of Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, and Sean Hannity — but it’s clear that their chief desire isn’t to see the re-establishment of a broad, majority-building coalition.<\/p>\n
(On the other hand, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich continues to raise the idea that conservatives will have to partner on some level with moderates if the GOP expects to return to power.)<\/p>\n
It’s also worth noting that even in a year when the Republican Party seems likely to make significant gains, the party has had trouble recruiting and funding viable candidates.<\/p>\n
Scandals from Colorado to Illinois to South Carolina have made the path to power far more difficult — and in part that’s because the GOP is no longer capable of vetting and filtering out non-viable candidates.<\/p>\n
Finally, the right has been far less effective of late at marginalizing its more radical elements, a problem symptomatic of a deeper lack of a clear, confident mainstream identity and leadership.<\/p>\n
It’s possible, of course, that a new, unifying voice will emerge — a Ronald Reagan-figure capable of articulating a broadly palatable conservative vision.<\/p>\n
A victory in November’s mid-term elections could also nurture some unity, as could simmering animosity to Democratic policies.<\/p>\n
But it’s also possible that we’ll see the continuing devolution of the conservative movement.<\/p>\n
While the left remains organized within a “big tent” we could see the right represented by a much looser coalition of groups, organizations and formal parties.<\/p>\n
Whether that would be good news or bad news for the conservative movement remains to be seen.\u00a0 But it’s hard to make a case that it would be good news for the GOP.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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