Okay, so those of you who hate the horse-racey stuff, click away.\u00a0 This one’s definitely not for you.\u00a0 This post is the low-brow equivalent of baseball box-score stuff.<\/p>\n
I’m making my picks for November, so that you can rate me after the ballots are counted.\u00a0 If you want to play, put your picks in the comment section below.<\/p>\n
(Note that because I’ll be covering NY-20, NY-23 and NY-24, I won’t be making picks about those races.\u00a0 But you’re welcome to have at it…)<\/p>\n
So here it is:<\/p>\n
US Senate:<\/p>\n
Republicans will pick up fewer seats than expected.\u00a0 I’m putting the number at between 3 and 5.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
Here’s why.\u00a0 Charlie Crist in Florida will prevail in Florida and will caucus with the Dems.\u00a0 That’s a loss for the GOP, off-setting other gains.<\/p>\n
Harry Reid will prevail in Nevada, scotching what should have been an easy pick-up for Republicans.<\/p>\n
US House:<\/p>\n
Republicans will pick up 30 seats, putting them at a far more respectable 208.<\/p>\n
But that will still leave Democrats with 227 seats and will maintain Nancy Pelosi’s grip on the House Speaker gavel.<\/p>\n
(Just to be provocative, I’ll note that Speaker Pelosi’s majority will STILL be almost as large as Speaker Newt Gingrich’s was after the 1994 Republican Revolution…)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
Here’s why.\u00a0 A thirty-seat gain is very respectable and factors in the clear anxiety Americans feel about the economy and the direction of the country.<\/p>\n
But it also factors in the widespread disarray within the GOP, the party’s shortage of campaign cash, and a largely negative message.<\/p>\n
To run the table and reclaim the majority in one election cycle Republicans will have to do a lot better.<\/p>\n
Also, while the “generic” ballot favors Republicans, a lot of these Democrats are savvy, well-funded politicians.\u00a0 They’re fighting for their lives and some will keep their noses above water.<\/p>\n
So there’s my late-summer prediction.\u00a0 Chime in and make your picks below.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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