Doug Hoffman finally confirmed unambiguously this week that he’ll mount a third party Conservative challenge if Republican voters reject him in this month’s GOP primary.<\/p>\n
“People think that I’m the spoiler because I say that I’m not going to get out of the race,” he said.\u00a0 “But people who get on the Conservative line have to stay on the Conservative line once they take it.”<\/p>\n
The decision should come as no surprise.\u00a0 In last year’s special election, Hoffman made it clear that he was running with equal passion against the Democrats and against the Republican establishment.<\/p>\n
“”We stood up against two major parties that had a lot of money,” he said, during his concession speech in Saranac Lake.\u00a0 “But we got this far on determination.”<\/p>\n
Conservative Party chairman Michael Long echoed that sentiment this week:\u00a0 “Doug Hoffman earned the right to a second shot at this considering the fact that last year he got 46% of the vote on the Conservative line alone.”<\/p>\n
But Hoffman’s outsider-crusader narrative is blurred this year by four factors:<\/p>\n
The most important is the simple fact that Hoffman lost last year to Democrat Bill Owens.<\/p>\n
Deep divisions among conservatives cost Republicans a seat that used to be a GOP birthright.\u00a0 Winning a third-party campaign will be even tougher this year.<\/p>\n
Secondly, Hoffman has run a campaign this year that even many of his tea party supporters say privately has been lackluster and disorganized.<\/p>\n
(Republican leaders have been more blunt, labeling Hoffman “a loser.”)<\/p>\n
There has been little of the national attention that marked last year’s special election.\u00a0 Hoffman lags badly in fundraising and this week UNYTEA leader Mark Barie expressed dismay over Hoffman’s preparation for a first debate with Republican Matt Doheny.<\/p>\n
“I’m a little bit disappointed,” Barie said.<\/p>\n
Thirdly, in this year’s campaign Republican primary voters — and not county chairman — will pick the candidate who faces Owens.<\/p>\n
It was one thing for Hoffman to stay in the race when he was running against the GOP’s “party bosses.”<\/p>\n
This year, he’ll have to make the argument that tens of thousands of rank-and-file voters chose the wrong candidate.<\/p>\n
Finally, Hoffman’s opponent in this primary, Doheny, is far more conservative than last year’s Republican pick, Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava.<\/p>\n
That makes it harder for Hoffman to claim that he’s the only viable right-of-center pick.<\/p>\n
Obviously, some of this train wreck goes away if Hoffman prevails in the September 14th primary.<\/p>\n
But his refusal to accept the primary results has infuriated many of the GOP committee members — hundreds of core activists — around the 23rd district.<\/p>\n
Some tell NCPR privately that they’re more comfortable dealing with Democrat Bill Owens than with Doug Hoffman.<\/p>\n
While conservatives tear each other apart, Owens is sitting on a huge campaign war chest and he’s been working steadily to shore up support among centrist Democrats and Republicans.<\/p>\n
The nationally-respected political analyst Larry Sabato says the 23rd House race is “leaning” toward a Democratic victory in November.<\/p>\n
Unless Republicans and Conservatives find a way to sort out this mess soon, that “lean” will become a “topple.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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