{"id":2614,"date":"2010-09-10T20:11:39","date_gmt":"2010-09-11T00:11:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/?p=2614"},"modified":"2010-09-13T12:57:12","modified_gmt":"2010-09-13T16:57:12","slug":"leading-pundit-says-most-north-country-house-races-lean-toward-dems","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/2010\/09\/10\/leading-pundit-says-most-north-country-house-races-lean-toward-dems\/","title":{"rendered":"Leading pundit says most North Country House races lean toward Dems"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Nate Silver at <a href=\"http:\/\/fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com\/2010\/09\/10\/g-o-p-has-2-in-3-chance-of-taking-house-model-forecasts\/#more-805\">FiveThirtyEight<\/a> &#8212; now a part of the New York Times on-line presence &#8212; has finally put up his national forecast for the House races this midterm.<\/p>\n<p>He thinks Republicans have a two-in-three chance of taking control of the House in November, which means (obviously) that if trendlines hold steady Democrats have only a one-in-three chance of maintaining their majority.<\/p>\n<p>According to Silver, Republicans are 97% sure to pick up at least one New York seat, in the Western NY district vacated by scandal-ridden Eric Massa last March.<\/p>\n<p>Mike Arcuri, the Democrat in NY-24 &#8212; which includes Old Forge &#8212; has a 54% chance of being unseated by Republican businessman Richard Hanna.<\/p>\n<p>From there, however, the GOP&#8217;s chances in this region grow more slim, according to FiveThirtyEight&#8217;s forecast models, which include factors ranging from polls to fundraising.<\/p>\n<p>Scott Murphy, the Democrat from Glens Falls, currently has a 72% chance of prevailing over challenger Chris Gibson.<\/p>\n<p>Bill Owens, the Democrat from Plattsburgh, has a 69% chance of winning a full term.<\/p>\n<p>One final note:\u00a0 Silver confirms that Democrats are hard-pressed this fall, and very likely to tumble, but he also acknowledges that the race-by-race trench battle of this campaign will decide the outcome.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;[E]ven if the Republicans are likely to enjoy substantial gains over all,  the outcome is hardly so certain in any individual Congressional  district.<\/p>\n<p>Although the model regards almost three dozen Democratic  incumbents as being underdogs to retain their seats, for instance, it is  by a slim margin in almost all cases.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight &#8212; now a part of the New York Times on-line presence [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[886],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2614"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2614"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2614\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2619,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2614\/revisions\/2619"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2614"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2614"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2614"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}