{"id":2802,"date":"2010-09-23T10:29:31","date_gmt":"2010-09-23T14:29:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/?p=2802"},"modified":"2010-09-23T11:57:08","modified_gmt":"2010-09-23T15:57:08","slug":"what-if-we-threw-an-election-who-would-come","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/2010\/09\/23\/what-if-we-threw-an-election-who-would-come\/","title":{"rendered":"What if we threw an election?  (Who would come?)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>There&#8217;s been a lot of whiplash the last 48 hours over poll results, some showing Republicans surging against Democrats in New York, others showing Andrew Cuomo and Kirsten Gillibrand holding onto comfortable leads.<\/p>\n<p>Why the stark disparity?<\/p>\n<p>Built into some polls are assumptions about who will actually show up.\u00a0 These &#8220;likely voter models&#8221; are incredibly complex and controversial.<\/p>\n<p>One of the more conservative national pollsters, Rasmussen, has drawn fire for refusing to offer detailed information about how they come up with their LVM, which tends to tilt toward conservative candidates.<\/p>\n<p>In the case of Gillibrand-DioGuardia, Murphy-Gibson, and Cuomo-Paladino, recent Siena polls shows Democrats sitting pretty.\u00a0 But their poll included all registered voters, without a focused effort to weed out those less likely to show up.<\/p>\n<p>Quinnipiac&#8217;s numbers, on the other hand, show a much closer contest, because they&#8217;re trying to focus in only on those likely voters. And they think conservatives are more likely to turn out at the polls in November.<\/p>\n<p>Which approach will turn out to be more accurate?\u00a0 No one really knows.\u00a0 Both pollsters have pretty good track records.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There&#8217;s been a lot of whiplash the last 48 hours over poll results, some showing [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[886],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2802"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2802"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2802\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2803,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2802\/revisions\/2803"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2802"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2802"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2802"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}