Siena’s new independent poll shows Democratic Rep. Bill Owens holding a shaky lead over Republican challenger Matt Doheny.<\/p>\n
By the most cautious measure, Owens leads Doheny by 5%.\u00a0 But he’s well under the fifty percent margin considered safe for incumbents, running 44-39%\u00a0 ahead of Doheny.<\/p>\n
The reason this is so complicated is that it appears that — with three weeks to go — a lot of voters still don’t understand that Doug Hoffman is out of the race.<\/p>\n
When voters were asked simply whether they would vote for Owens, Doheny, or Hoffman, the breakdown looked like this:<\/p>\n
Owens 42%<\/p>\n
Doheny 31%<\/p>\n
Hoffman 15%<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
Obviously that’s a much larger — though still not entirely comfortable — margin for Owens.<\/p>\n
I’ve noticed that swaths of the North Country are still peppered with Hoffman signs and banners, so it’s conceivable that a sizable chunk of voters still haven’t heard that Hoffman is out.<\/p>\n
When confronted with the news by Siena’s pollsters that Hoffman was out, his supporters split in how they would vote:<\/p>\n
47% said they would shift to Doheny<\/p>\n
19% said they weren’t sure<\/p>\n
16% said they would support Owens<\/p>\n
10% said they wouldn’t vote<\/p>\n
8% of Hoffman voters said they would still vote for Hoffman<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
So…clearly Matt Doheny is still haunted by the political ghost of Doug Hoffman.<\/p>\n
Owens, meanwhile, appears to be haunted by the hunger for change that is sweeping the country.\u00a0 45% of voters now say they want something different — compared with just 40% who say the Democrat has earned a second term.<\/p>\n
Bottom line?\u00a0 Both of these politicians have a lot of work to do before election day in a race that remains very, very competitive.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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