Anyone who reads this blog regularly knows that I’ve been a skeptic about the Big Republican Surge that’s brewing across the land.<\/p>\n
In my last back-of-the-napkin scorecard, I predicted that Democrats would hold on in both houses of Congress, with a razor thin margin in the House and a more comfortable advantage in the Senate.<\/p>\n
But the late summer and early autumn were deeply unkind to the party of President Barack Obama.\u00a0 Two trends have developed which make a GOP takeover (at least on the House side) extremely likely.<\/p>\n
The first is that in many of the dozens and dozens of races where Democrats look vulnerable, the Republican challengers have built more comfortable leads.<\/p>\n
Until recently, the whole country seemed balanced on a political razor’s edge.\u00a0 Now there appears to be a very distinct lean to the right.<\/p>\n
The other relatively new development is that Republicans have flipped the equation in terms of fundraising.<\/p>\n
Across the country, the GOP and its allies have capitalized brilliantly on the Supreme Court’s recent ruling allowing secret donations to fuel political advertisements.<\/p>\n
A lot of Democrats who might have been competitive in a trench-fight could well be overwhelmed by a wave of spots funded by groups like the Chamber of Commerce.<\/p>\n
Still, there are a couple of caveats to this Big Win narrative worth noting.<\/p>\n
First, again, a lot of Democrats in these races are competent, charismatic, scandal-free and well funded candidates.<\/p>\n
They’re working with very good, established get-out-the-vote machines in some of the most competitive districts.<\/p>\n
Yes, the climate is horrible. But it’s possible that a surprising number of Underdog Democrats will pull out upsets, especially if the climate shifts a bit over the next two weeks.<\/p>\n
The second Question Mark Factor worth keeping in mind is a growing sense of skepticism about these polls.<\/p>\n
Normally, I wouldn’t put a lot of stock in this sort of thing.\u00a0 There is enough consistency in the aggregated survey data to show clearly that a lot of Democrats are in serious trouble.<\/p>\n
But a number of very good statisticians have been pointing to the growing number of Democratic-leaning voters who are no longer using landline telephones.<\/p>\n
As a consequence, roughly 25% of the country’s voters are simply invisible to the vast majority of pollsters.<\/p>\n