Journalists love competitive elections and like a lot of my colleagues I’ve been convinced that Republicans have a very real shot at retaking their traditional stomping grounds in Upstate and northern New York.<\/p>\n
With less than two weeks to go before election day, I’m not so sure anymore.<\/p>\n
The latest polls from NY-20, NY-23, and NY-24 suggest that the Democratic incumbents in these districts remain relatively popular, and also find significantly higher support for Democratic policy ideas than in other parts of the country.<\/p>\n
Wednesday’s survey, issued by the non-partisan The Hill newspaper, gives Mike Arcuri from Utica a 10% lead over Republican challenger Richard Hanna.<\/p>\n
Democrats Bill Owens from Plattsburgh and Scott Murphy from Glens Falls enjoy similar advantages over their GOP rivals.<\/p>\n
So why aren’t we seeing the same right-of-center-tea-party surge here that is unfolding in other parts of the US?<\/p>\n
I have three theories.<\/p>\n
First, the Republican candidates in these races aren’t fire breathers.\u00a0 Chris Gibson, Richard Hanna and Matt Doheny are all thoughtful, credible, experienced men.\u00a0 (Two are businessmen, the other a former Army officer.)<\/p>\n
Yes, there’s been some mud-slinging in these races, and some inaccurate rhetoric, but by and large the campaigns have been driven by issues.<\/p>\n
Why does that matter? Because when it comes to actual policies and programs, Democratic policies are still more popular (at least in New York) than Republican policies.<\/p>\n
People here are more worried about jobs than about higher taxes; and they’re generally convinced that Democrats will do a better job helping to solve the unemployment crisis.<\/p>\n
So when politicians appeal to voters’ heads, rather than their hearts, Democrats still have a slight advantage.<\/p>\n
It doesn’t help that none of these three Republican candidates are particularly charismatic on the stump.\u00a0 All three are solid and competent and thoughtful, to be sure, but they’re not firing up rooms with their rhetoric.<\/p>\n
My second theory is that many of the things that outrage voters in other parts of the US are already commonplace here.\u00a0 Government stimulus programs have kept Upstate New York afloat for a generation.<\/p>\n
If it weren’t for public sector jobs, the economy would have collapsed years ago; and millions of our neighbors are already on some form of government-provided healthcare.<\/p>\n
I’m not saying this is a good thing.\u00a0 But I do think it shapes people’s political attitudes.<\/p>\n
Put simply, Republicans are shaking their fists at a system that provides a lifeline to lots of voters and their families.<\/p>\n
Finally, the Democrats in all three of these races are competent, well-funded, well-liked and reasonably independent.\u00a0 Yes, Owens, Murphy and Arcuri voted with the Democrats on some key controversial issues.<\/p>\n
But they’ve also broken ranks frequently, on everything from cap and trade to the health care reform act.<\/p>\n
They’ve been embraced by groups like the National Rifle Association.\u00a0 And they’ve even picked up endorsements from some Republicans.<\/p>\n
Their opponents will say that this is all wolf-in-sheep’s-clothing stuff; that all Democrats are, in their hearts, Nancy Pelosi enablers.<\/p>\n
But so far at least voters don’t seem to be buying it.<\/p>\n
Obviously, these three races remain competitive.\u00a0 The GOP is fighting hard to retake turf that they see as rightfully theirs.\u00a0 Polls have been funky enough this year that even a 10-point lead isn’t decisive.<\/p>\n
In two out of the three races the Democrats are still winning under 50% of voters’ support, never a good sign for an incumbent.<\/p>\n
Still, compared with the plight of their colleagues in other parts of the US, Democrats in the North Country appear relatively safe.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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