Republican challenger Chris Gibson has clearly surged in the final weeks of the NY-20 race.<\/p>\n
But has Democrat Scott Murphy really collapsed to the degree suggested by the latest Siena poll?<\/p>\n
After all, a month ago he was leading by a chunky margin.<\/p>\n
Turns out it’s a little more complicated than that.<\/p>\n
Pollster Steve Greenberg says you can’t draw an exact apples-to-apples comparison between this survey and the last one in September.<\/p>\n
The reason is that Siena used a slightly different voter model in this survey, so that it’s difficult to draw a clean contrast.<\/p>\n
“I would say it’s a Macintosh to a Red Delicious [comparison],” Greenberg says.<\/p>\n
“This poll today has a more stringent ‘likely voter’ sample in it,” he added.<\/p>\n
Greenberg is confident that their methodology was able to capture a good snapshot of which voters are more likely to vote,\u00a0 and how that shapes the race now seven days from the November midterms.<\/p>\n
If Siena nailed it, then this is a very steep climb for the Murphy campaign, and incredibly reassuring news for Gibson.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Republican challenger Chris Gibson has clearly surged in the final weeks of the NY-20 race. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[886],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3086"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3086"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3086\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3086"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3086"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3086"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}