Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper entered this election knowing he held a major advantage: Canadians had yet to warm up to Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff.<\/p>\n
Of course, Ignatieff had to start by digging out from under an avalanche of pre-emptive negative ads funded by Harper’s party apparatus. Ads with scary music and sinister photos suggesting Ignatieff was some ivory-tower opportunist who was “just visiting” Canada after decades abroad in Britain and the US. And charges that Ignatieff would slink into a murky coalition dragging Canada into a nightmare where Quebec separatists would be calling the shots. (Be very afraid! Scenario A)<\/p>\n
Michale Ignatieff campaigned in turn by by presenting Harper as a frightful neo-con bogyman, a dangerous autocrat – with the Liberals as the only<\/em> plausible alternative for the many Canadians who mistrust a Harper majority. (Be even more afraid! Scenario B)<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the NDP’s Jack Layton was building his own theme.\u00a0 (Try hope! Scenario C)<\/p>\n Layton consistently stated he was running as a look-ahead Prime Minister…even though his party is more left-leaning than most Canadian voters, even though the NDP was given no real chance at victory and even though the 60-year-old grandfather began the election recuperating from treatment for prostate cancer and hip surgery.<\/p>\n Layton’s been busy leveraging his pluses. He’s shown dogged determination, populist appeal and the least reliance on fear tactics. He’s resonating with younger voters and Bloc voters in seat-rich Quebec. In marked contrast to the snippy cross-fire between Harper and Ignatieff, Layton usually comes across as, well, cheerful.<\/p>\n All of which has seemingly lifted his party into uncharted territory. At least one siginficant poll out this week<\/a> places the NDP in second place, with the theoretical strength to become the official opposition in a Harper-lead Parliament.<\/p>\n Should Harper return at the head of yet another minority, the potential exists for Harper to lose a new confidence vote with Layton, in turn, being asked to form a coalition minority government and hence become the next Prime Minister. (A real “wow” of a shift.)<\/p>\n Harper and Ignatieff are now united in needing to douse Layton’s momentum. And you can bet fear will loom large in their protestations that Layton represents a disater to be avoided. And – make no mistake – if the idea of Layton running the country scares enough voters, Harper could get the majority he craves.<\/p>\n Brain Topp (who has worked with the Layton campaign) has nevertheless written what I consider a useful analysis of the NDP’s surge<\/a> along with mistakes he argues Harper and Ignatieff have committed along the way.<\/p>\n