So we wake up this morning, still in the shadow of the Republican Tsunami of 2010, to find that a Democrat has won a staunchly conservative district in western New York.<\/p>\n
Democrat Kathy Hochul beat her Republican rival, Jane Corwin, by a resounding 4% points and she did so in large part by defending Medicare, one of America’s massive entitlement programs.<\/p>\n
I know there were other factors in the race — Corwin was a clumsy campaigner and the GOP faced an irksome third-party challenge — but all sides agree that Medicare was a big factor.<\/p>\n
So what does this tell us about the state of the country?<\/p>\n
A little over a year ago, tea party activists engineered what looked to be a huge swing in the country’s political culture, demanding smaller government and smaller deficits.<\/p>\n
But now, when the GOP actually offers up an aggressive plan to curtail the size of government, phasing out one of those “socialistic” entitlements, they suffer a stinging backlash in heavily Republican territory.<\/p>\n
What gives?<\/p>\n
Confusing as all this is, I think it gives a pretty clear picture of where the American people stand on the major issues of the day, and provides a fairly clear — if painful — policy road map.<\/p>\n
First and foremost, despite a lot of noisy and passionate activism on the far-right, Americans don’t hate government.<\/p>\n
In fact, they adore the big programs that improve their lives and keep them safe, from Social Security to Medicare to the US military and public education.<\/p>\n
It happens that these are the most expensive and far-reaching programs in the budget.<\/p>\n
So there’s simply no way to argue that you can shrink government services substantially without curtailing services that people generally agree that they want.<\/p>\n
If I’m right, then there really is no fundamental American debate over the size of government, no culture war, no red states vs. blue states. \u00a0 Call it the Great American Consensus.<\/p>\n
Yes, there will always be big dust-ups over new and expensive policy proposals. (Should we spend trillions of dollars fighting wars in Afghanistan and Iraq?\u00a0 Should we move toward truly universal healthcare for Americans?)<\/p>\n
But the essentially libertarian vision espoused by many on the far right — and by a growing number of Republican leaders — just isn’t playing in Main Street America.<\/p>\n
Basic assumptions about the role the Federal government will play in our lives, established by every president from Franklin Roosevelt to Jimmy Carter, remains the “baseline normal” for the vast majority of citizens.<\/p>\n
If that sounds like a clear victory for Democrats and liberals, it’s not.\u00a0 The thorny fact remains that no one is quite sure how to pay for all those big programs.<\/p>\n
Even if you closed every corporate loophole and eliminated the Bush-era tax cuts that primarily favored the wealthy, terrifying budget deficits would remain.<\/p>\n
Polls show that Americans care deeply about eliminating those deficits — almost as much as they care about preserving their favorite entitlements.<\/p>\n
The solution to this mess will almost certainly be non-ideological, unpopular and painful.<\/p>\n
It will include significant curtailment of many of those beloved social programs.\u00a0 Military spending will also have to shrink substantially.\u00a0 We will also face sizable tax increases that reach well beyond the wealthy.<\/p>\n
(Does anyone really think it’s sustainable that half of American wage earners pay no Federal income taxes?)<\/p>\n
Doing all that without derailing the wobbly economic recovery will require a lot of patience, care and caution.<\/p>\n
But in the end, isn’t this what shared sacrifice would look like?\u00a0 When everyone feels a little of the pain and anxiety, and shares some of the grumbles, won’t that be a fairly sure sign that we’re getting back on track?<\/p>\n
As always, your thoughts welcome.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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