First, a simple reality:\u00a0 Democrats in general just got their rear-ends handed to them.\u00a0 And progressives, in particular, got thrown under the bus.<\/p>\n
The budget-ceiling vote is a full-throated victory for the Right, and another demonstration of the weakness and disarray of America’s liberals.<\/p>\n
Which has all kinds of ramifications for the economic recovery, for fairness in America, and for solving the nation’s long-term budget deficit.<\/p>\n
But (and yes, this is a horse-racey sort of essay) it also gives us a first measure of the broad themes that will shape the 2012 elections.<\/p>\n
On the one hand, you have the Republican Party staking out clear territory as the passionate party of fundamental change.<\/p>\n
The GOP has articulated an unequivocal message:\u00a0 The country has gone to hell in a handbasket and needs swift and even shocking course corrections.<\/p>\n
Tea party activists are bold, brazen and unflinching, and for now at least they’re calling the shots.<\/p>\n
The danger, for Republicans as we approach the election, is two-fold.\u00a0 First, the things that the tea party wants — deep budget cuts, without any tax increases of any kind — are deeply unpopular among rank-and-file voters.<\/p>\n
As those cuts begin to bite, the romance of balanced budgets could give way to real anger, especially among the Social Security bloc of voters.<\/p>\n
Secondly, American voters tend to be nervous around radicals.\u00a0 The fact that the GOP’s right wing was apparently willing to court “economic chaos” in order to achieve its goals may give some voters real pause.<\/p>\n
(The fact that so many Democrats wound up voting for this deal gives Republicans a lot of political cover, at least for now.)<\/p>\n
The dangers for Democrats, meanwhile, are even more profound as the election season heats up.\u00a0 Chief amongst these is the fact that President Barack Obama’s party appears to be positioning itself as the dull, technocrat’s party.<\/p>\n
They are the grown-ups, who govern without much in the way of ideology or passion.\u00a0 If they have to sacrifice their program and their principles to keep things on an even keel, that’s what will happen.<\/p>\n
As we saw in 2010, that posture can be a prescription for disaster for Democrats.<\/p>\n
The GOP’s simple, oft-repeated (and occasionally blatantly false) message trumped Mr. Obama’s more nuanced, complicated (and occasionally dangerously\u00a0 muddled) middle-ground platform.<\/p>\n
So this will be the big test going forward.\u00a0 Will Republicans be viewed by the broad swath of voters as committed and principled activists, or as zealots?<\/p>\n
Will Democrats be seen by moderate and independent voters as the mature, focused party of common sense governance?\u00a0 Or will they be seen as wishy-washy quislings, with no clear vision for how to take the country and the economy forward?<\/p>\n
In the end, the debt-ceiling vote — and the profoundly different ways the two parties handled it — could wind up being more definitive next year than the healthcare debate or the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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