Six months ago, the effort to unseat President Barack Obama seemed like an odds-on winner.\u00a0 Mr. Obama seemed all but destined to join Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush in the one-termer column of American history.<\/p>\n
Arguably, the come-down for this president would be even greater.\u00a0 The man who campaigned on Change and Hope was plunging in the polls, especially among independents.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the Republican Party was energized by the 2010 congressional results, and buoyed by the prospects of a power-house pack of candidates.<\/p>\n
Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin.\u00a0 it was an embarrassment of riches.<\/p>\n
But as we enter the season when GOP primary voters will actually start casting ballots, the prospects for a conservative triumph have shifted starkly.<\/p>\n
The biggest single factor is one that Republicans can’t control:\u00a0 the economy appears to be improving, eroding their claim that this White House bungled its handling of the recession.<\/p>\n
Today’s announcement that unemployment has dropped to 8.6% complicates the right-of-center narrative considerably.<\/p>\n
Another significant factor is that the GOP primary has produced what Washington Post<\/a> conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer described as “a weak Republican field with two significantly flawed front-runners.”<\/p>\n Mrs. Palin opted out.\u00a0 Herman Cain and Rick Perry flamed out, after sucking up a lot of campaign dollars and a lot of precious media time.<\/p>\n That leaves Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich as the most likely contenders.\u00a0 Both men have qualities and strengths.<\/p>\n But Americans don’t unseat incumbent presidents lightly.\u00a0 For voters to choose either Republican over Barack Obama Obama, they will need to be convinced that the situation is particularly dire.<\/p>\n And they will also have to accept that one of these men is substantially more capable, with better ideas and a steadier capacity for leadership.<\/p>\n Opinions are mixed about this even among Republicans.\u00a0 Mr. Romney’s testy conversation with Fox News’s Brett Baier this week drew<\/a> harsh reviews on the right.<\/p>\n