So a while back I ruminated out loud about how Republicans could really blow the 2012 election season.<\/p>\n
It was an easy essay to write because, at the moment — and really ever since the 2010 mid-terms — the GOP has been throwing off negative and self-destructive energy the way my beater pick-up truck throws oil.<\/p>\n
And the simple truth is that unseating an incumbent president is incredibly tough.\u00a0 This is, as they say, Barack Obama’s election to lose.<\/p>\n
Even in the Democrats’ darkest days, right after the GOP swept back to power in the House, I thought estimates of Mr. Obama’s weakness were overblown.<\/p>\n
But there are still signs that his re-election is anything but a sure thing.\u00a0 Here’s how the Republicans could still salvage a stunning come-back victory this November.<\/p>\n
First, and foremost, the fragile economic recovery that we’re now seeing could wither, or even collapse.<\/p>\n
If Europe tumbles into a full-blown economic crisis, or if China wobbles, the US stock market could go domino-style into retreat, banks could tuck tail, and a whole chain of ugly reactions could ensue.<\/p>\n
It’s also possible that the jobs growth we’ve seen the last year will stall.\u00a0 As Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum point out, this isn’t exactly the most robust post-recession era in American history.<\/p>\n
Political experts generally say that Americans vote in November based on their mood in the summer.\u00a0 So the first “uh-oh” moment for Mr. Obama will come in July, if the country’s budding optimism has wilted.<\/p>\n
The second big crisis for the Democrats will signs of be apathy or even full-blown insurrection among liberal-left voters.<\/p>\n
Remember, Democrats tend to be younger and less white than Republican voters, and that means they vote with far less discipline.\u00a0 They can also be just as fractious as Republicans.<\/p>\n
The 1968 Democratic convention saw a major push-back from left-wing activists.\u00a0 It was so ugly and tumultuous that it contributed mightily to the election of Richard Nixon.<\/p>\n
That defeat, coming on the heels of the popular Lyndon Johnson presidency, ushered to power a cadre of conservative politicians — Dick Cheney, Henry Kissinger, George Schulz, George Romney — who have shaped American politics ever since.<\/p>\n
A similar left-of-center insurrection in 2000 developed around the third-party candidacy of Ralph Nader, contributing to the election of George W. Bush.\u00a0 The momentum of the Clinton-Gore presidency was brought to a screeching halt.<\/p>\n
Finally, and this is key, it’s important to point out that even after his recent run of political good fortune — and even given the bumbling slate of Republican presidential candidates — Mr. Obama has almost no margin for error.<\/p>\n
The latest flurry of polls show the president running ahead of Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney nationally by 6-7% points.\u00a0 That’s good, not great.\u00a0 And in key battleground states, he is locked in a statistical tie.<\/p>\n
In Pennsylvania, Mr. Obama leads by an insignificant 1%.\u00a0 In Virginia, his advantage is only 6%, according to the most favorable polls.\u00a0 In Arizona, Mr. Romney leads by 5%.<\/p>\n
And again, this is after several months of more or less unmitigated political disaster for the GOP, and a strong tailwind for the White House.\u00a0 What happens when Mr. Obama faces a unified, focused conservative movement?<\/p>\n
So in summary, here’s how the doomsday scenario shapes up for Democrats in 2012.<\/p>\n
The economy slumps a bit, meaning that moderate and independent Americans just run out of patience.\u00a0 Meanwhile, a Democratic base upset over the president’s timid positions on same-sex marriage, climate change, Guantanamo, and immigration reform fails to turn out to vote in big numbers.<\/p>\n
Republicans capitalize by choosing a nominee by early summer.\u00a0 Boosted by Super-PAC ad blitzes and lifted by a more moderate message, the GOP’s guy captures Florida, Virginia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Missouri and Colorado.<\/p>\n
The GOP claims the White House and along the way builds just enough momentum to eke out a one-seat majority in the US Senate.<\/p>\n
If this happens, it won’t just be a defeat for one president.\u00a0 It will rewrite the history books.<\/p>\n
The first black president, the man who triumphed on a promise of hope and change, will be remembered as the guy who bungled the Great Recession and was tossed out on his ear.<\/p>\n
For their part, Republicans will have elected a president — any of the four remaining candidates — far more conservative than any we’ve seen before, well to the right of Ronald Reagan or George W. Bush.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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