Bill Owens may be the luckiest Democrat in the US.<\/p>\n
He was propelled to victory in 2009 — in the bedrock Republican NY23 House district — by an astonishing level of disarray among conservatives.\u00a0 Also by Barack Obama’s popularity, which was still soaring.<\/p>\n
Republican Dede Scozzafava and Conservative Doug Hoffman beat the crud out of each other, and in the end Scozzafava flipped and endorsed Owens.<\/p>\n
Even with all that wind beneath his wings, however, Owens prevailed over Conservative Doug\u00a0 Hoffman by fewer than 3,600 votes.<\/p>\n
That was the special election that changed North Country politics.<\/p>\n
A year later, in 2010, Conservatives and Republicans again fell into a fratricidal blood bath, with Hoffman going toe-to-toe with Matt Doheny.<\/p>\n
It was ugly and protracted.\u00a0 In the end, Doheny and Hoffman split the right-of-center vote.\u00a0 Still, Owens prevailed over Doheny by fewer than 2,000 votes.<\/p>\n
This year, the situation is very different.\u00a0 Matt Doheny has come darned close to clearing the field on the right.<\/p>\n
Yes, Kellie Green has announced her candidacy, and Doug Hoffman is not absolutely positively ruling out a run.<\/p>\n
But the congressional primary this year will take place fairly early — in June — and it appears likely that by that point in the calendar this race will have shaped up into a much more conventional two-candidate contest.<\/p>\n
The question, given his narrow margins the last two go-rounds, is whether Owens can hold onto this district in a straight-up, mano a mano campaign.<\/p>\n
Weighing against Owens is the fact that this is still a conservative-leaning chunk of political terrain, perhaps even more so after this year’s round of redistricting.\u00a0 And President Obama’s popularity certainly isn’t what it once was.<\/p>\n
Also, it’s hard to see this shaping up as a Democratic groundswell year.\u00a0 Seems fairly flat out there all around.<\/p>\n
Leaning in Owens favor is the fact that the national GOP appears to be more and more hard-line conservative, with very tough messages coming from the top presidential contenders.<\/p>\n
It’s unclear whether the North Country will be comfortable with that political brand.<\/p>\n
Republican leader Teresa Sayward’s announcement last week that she’s leaning toward voting for Mr. Obama shows that there are some shifting sands in the region that might favor Owens.<\/p>\n
It’s also true that Owens is now a true incumbent congressman.\u00a0 He’s had three years to sink roots, build name recognition, and build a big war chest.\u00a0 He’s also leaned centrist in many of his votes in Washington.<\/p>\n
Finally, it’s fair to point out that Owens did survive 2010, which was a Republican landslide year.\u00a0 He’s an experienced campaigner and has proved that he knows how to eke out wins.<\/p>\n
Doheny, meanwhile, has embraced the national GOP’s agenda comfortably, echoing concerns about “Obamacare,” supporting the Roman Catholic church’s position on contraception and women’s healthcare, and condemning the Federal stimulus.<\/p>\n
Will that narrative work in a district that has skewed more and more “purple”?\u00a0 Can he build momentum in a year when, nationally, Republican turnout has been light? Can he excite the region’s conservative voters without alienating moderates?<\/p>\n
A two-man race would offer a much clearer answer to those questions.<\/p>\n
But I think it’s clear that Doheny will be a tough opponent for Owens.\u00a0 He comes across as centrist and down-to-earth in his public appearances.\u00a0 He’s a former investment banker, not a social-conservative fire breather.<\/p>\n
That chemistry might work just fine for voters in this region.<\/p>\n
What’s certain is that this will be one of the most closely watched House races in the country — yet again.\u00a0 Republicans will see this as a crucial place to score a victory.\u00a0 For Democrats hoping to regain a majority, holding the North Country is a must.<\/p>\n
Gird yourself for the tsunami of campaign ads.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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