![\"\"](\"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/files\/2012\/03\/electoralvotemap.jpg\" "\\"electoralvotemap\\"")
<\/a>Electoral votes by state<\/p><\/div>
\nSo I’ve been playing with the Electoral College map in my usual,\u00a0 obsessive way, and here’s my latest find.<\/p>\n
If President\u00a0 Barack Obama wins all the states where he’s currently leading in polls\u00a0 consistently by at least 5 points, he comes very close to a win, capturing 266 out of the 270 Electoral College votes he needs\u00a0 for a second term.<\/p>\n
In many of those states — like Michigan, Wisconsin and New Mexico — the President\u00a0 is actually leading by double-digit margins, and commands over 50%\u00a0 support.\u00a0 So clearly, Mr. Obama holds a powerful strategic lead.<\/p>\n
Does that mean it’s game over for Mitt Romney?\u00a0 No. As many In Boxers have pointed out, it’s still very early days.<\/p>\n
So far, Romney hasn’t shown the kind of talent on the stump that has allowed other campaigners — politicians of the caliber of Reagan and Clinton, say — to recapture the larger narrative.<\/p>\n
The lengthy Republican primary is also limiting dangerously the time that he’ll have to pivot from his conservative talking points to a more moderate general-election message.<\/p>\n
But even if the\u00a0 campaign dynamic doesn’t change dramatically in tone and\u00a0 momentum, the Republican does still have a path to victory.<\/p>\n
Here is what may be the most plausible scenario for how Romney could unseat an incumbent president.<\/p>\n
First, of course, he has to hold everything that is currently expected\u00a0 to fall in the “red” column, including states like Arizona and Missouri\u00a0 that some Democrats think might conceivably be put in play.<\/p>\n
Republicans have already come very close to losing Virginia, a state\u00a0 that was once purplish or downright red.<\/p>\n
Polls show Obama leading in that southern-border state consistently by close to double-digit margins, thanks largely to Democratic support in growing northern suburbs just outside of Washington DC.<\/p>\n
One more significant erosion\u00a0 of that caliber on the national map and the game is probably up.<\/p>\n
Still, if Team Romney can hold onto the territory that now looks safe, they have a shot.\u00a0 They then have to run the table in these remaining battlegrounds: Colorado,\u00a0 Iowa, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and New Hampshire.<\/p>\n
That kind of sweep won’t be easy, of course.\u00a0 Romney currently trails (by\u00a0 small and inconsistent margins) in several of those states, including Florida and Ohio.\u00a0 But the door clearly remains\u00a0 open to making an argument to those important voters.<\/p>\n
It’s also worth noting that for Romney to recapture New Hampshire would be a nice coup.<\/p>\n
His\u00a0 power base within the Republican Party is set solidly in the Northeast, but he’s expected to win almost nothing in that region during the general election.<\/p>\n
Even if he wins all those states, Romney would emerge with a scant\u00a0 victory of 272 Electoral College votes.\u00a0 So there is, as they say, zero margin for error.<\/p>\n
I think it’s a fact that at this stage of the game, the Republican map — and Mitt Romney’s room to maneuver — is much, much smaller than most pundits\u00a0 have acknowledged.<\/p>\n
But a win is a win and during the primary Romney has shown that he’s comfortable eking out a victory on points, rather than a knock-out.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
So I’ve been playing with the Electoral College map in my usual,\u00a0 obsessive way, and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[6548,6550,20],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5759"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5759"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5759\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5760,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5759\/revisions\/5760"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5759"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5759"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5759"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}