widely respected Real Clear Politics map<\/a> shows the Democrat heading into the summer with 227 electoral college votes already firmly in his pocket or leaning his way.\u00a0 (270 are needed to win.)<\/p>\nRomney, meanwhile, has far fewer:\u00a0 just 170 electoral college votes tipping reliably his direction.\u00a0 That’s a world of difference.<\/p>\n
Even worse is the fact that many of the eleven remaining “toss-up states” are tottering toward Obama, some of them by substantial margins.<\/p>\n
New polls this week show the President up by double-digit margin in New Hampshire, leading by 6 points in Ohio, and maintaining a narrow lead in Florida.\u00a0 If he captures those states alone, it’s all over.<\/p>\n
Even more troubling for Republicans is persistent polling that shows Arizona may actually be in play, with Colorado and Nevada also slipping away.<\/p>\n
Romney has infuriated many Hispanics with his opposition to immigration reform, including the Dream Act, which appears to be hurting him badly in the Sunbelt West that was once bedrock Republican territory.<\/p>\n
The point of all this?\u00a0 A lot of the coverage of Romney in recent weeks has suggested that he’s moved into a kind of steady asendancy, that a “slow and steady” challenge to Obama will carry the day in November.<\/p>\n
I don’t think that speculation is born out by these numbers, or these trends.<\/p>\n
To win, Republicans will need to do what they’ve done so successfully in past elections, redefining the larger narrative, shifting the overall mood of the electorate.<\/p>\n
I think these numbers also argue for the need for Romney to take some risks as a candidate, showing more passion, and throwing out far more concrete policy ideas.<\/p>\n
The GOP is clearly banking on this being a referendum on Obama, and clearly some of that dynamic will be at play.\u00a0 Indeed, consistent polls show that widespread dissatisfaction with Obama is all that’s keeping Romney afloat this point.<\/p>\n
But so far, and consistently, Obama is still winning that referendum.\u00a0 Where the all-important electoral college is concerned, he’s winning by a wide margin.<\/p>\n