{"id":6191,"date":"2012-06-27T10:39:52","date_gmt":"2012-06-27T14:39:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/?p=6191"},"modified":"2012-06-27T11:25:17","modified_gmt":"2012-06-27T15:25:17","slug":"its-on-doheny-owens-rematch-will-be-on-of-countrys-top-races","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/2012\/06\/27\/its-on-doheny-owens-rematch-will-be-on-of-countrys-top-races\/","title":{"rendered":"It’s on. Doheny-Owens rematch will be one of country’s top races."},"content":{"rendered":"

After nearly two years of maneuvering, name-calling, backroom finagling, map redrawing, and good old fashioned North Country politicking…it’s on.<\/p>\n

Matt Doheny, the investment banker from Watertown, will face off against Bill Owens, the former businessman and attorney from Plattsburgh.<\/p>\n

In 2010, this race was settled by roughly 2,000 votes and that was with Doug Hoffman still on the ballot as a Conservative alternative (even though he had formally dropped out of the contest).<\/p>\n

In a district that has historically been a GOP stronghold, Doheny clearly has a real shot at reclaiming the NY-21 district.\u00a0 \u201cThe opportunity\u2026 it\u2019s a clear one-on-one shot,” he told the Watertown Daily Times<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But a lot has changed since 2010. Owens has established himself as a true incumbent.<\/p>\n

He’s navigated a markedly moderate line, championing farmers and gun rights at the same time that he was embracing President Barack Obama’s stimulus plan.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, the district has also changed significantly, with the old NY-23 shedding its central New York turf and gaining a big swath of rural country in the Glens Falls area.<\/p>\n

In those communities, neither Doheny nor Owens is the incumbent.<\/p>\n

It also remains to be seen whether Matt Doheny has truly unified the Republican-Conservative-Tea Party coalition that he’ll need to prevail.\u00a0 The Watertown report found some simmering discomfort with his candidacy on the right.<\/p>\n

Polling 72% to 28% against Kellie Greene in yesterday’s GOP primary is a respectable showing for Doheny, but hardly dominant – particularly against an opponent who ran an underfunded, lackluster, largely invisible campaign.<\/p>\n

That means Doheny garnered roughly 8,577 votes to Greene’s 3,396.\u00a0 Remember that in the last Doheny-Owens match-up, the Republican fell short by 2,000 votes.\u00a0 That suggests there’s some work yet to be done.<\/p>\n

(It may not help that the NRCC is still calling out Doug Hoffman, describing him in a press release issued last night as a “spoiler” for his role in the 2010 vote.)<\/p>\n

Doheny will benefit from the fact that redistricting made NY-21 even more Republican-tilting (by party registration) than the old NY-23 district was.\u00a0 He’ll also have plenty of money to spend<\/a> between now and November.<\/p>\n

The bottom line is that this promises to be one of the most competitive, and fiercely contested, races in the U.S.<\/p>\n

It won’t have quite the melodrama of 2009 and 2010, but this will be a campaign between two well-spoken, capable politicians.\u00a0 Get ready for those TV spots and those robocalls!<\/p>\n

UPDATE:\u00a0 The Owens campaign is pushing a narrative today that Doheny received far fewer votes in this primary than he did in 2010, down roughly 47%.\u00a0 In St. Lawrence County, the number of Doheny votes dropped by nearly two thirds.<\/p>\n

The Owens camp describes this as a decline in interest for Doheny.<\/p>\n

A more likely factor: this was an under-publicized primary, with an outcome that was largely settled, unlike the Doheny-Hoffman contest two years ago.<\/p>\n

But it is fair to note that turnout and voter enthusiasm could be a big challenge for both candidates in November.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
County<\/span><\/td>\nDoheny Votes 2010<\/span><\/td>\nDoheny Votes 2012<\/span><\/td>\n% decline<\/span><\/td>\nClinton<\/span><\/td>\n958<\/span><\/td>\n787<\/span><\/td>\n-17.85%<\/span><\/td>\nFranklin<\/span><\/td>\n383<\/span><\/td>\n293<\/span><\/td>\n-23.50%<\/span><\/td>\nHamilton<\/span><\/td>\n420<\/span><\/td>\n268<\/span><\/td>\n-36.19%<\/span><\/td>\nJefferson<\/span><\/td>\n2,967<\/span><\/td>\n1329<\/span><\/td>\n-55.21%<\/span><\/td>\nLewis<\/span><\/td>\n798<\/span><\/td>\n356<\/span><\/td>\n-55.39%<\/span><\/td>\nMadison<\/span><\/td>\n1,972<\/span><\/td>\nNA<\/span><\/td>\nNA<\/span><\/td>\nOswego<\/span><\/td>\n3,342<\/span><\/td>\nNA<\/span><\/td>\nNA<\/span><\/td>\nSt. Lawrence<\/span><\/td>\n2,906<\/span><\/td>\n1078<\/span><\/td>\n-62.90%<\/span><\/td>\nEssex*<\/span><\/td>\n823<\/span><\/td>\n623<\/span><\/td>\nNA<\/span><\/td>\nFulton*<\/span><\/td>\n831<\/span><\/td>\n837<\/span><\/td>\nNA<\/span><\/td>\nPart of Oneida<\/span><\/td>\n911<\/span><\/td>\nNA<\/span><\/td>\nNA<\/span><\/td>\nWarren<\/span><\/td>\nNA<\/span><\/td>\n1015<\/span><\/td>\nNA<\/span><\/td>\nWashington<\/span><\/td>\nNA<\/span><\/td>\n695<\/span><\/td>\nNA<\/span><\/td>\nSaratoga**<\/span><\/td>\nNA<\/span><\/td>\n1048<\/span><\/td>\nNA<\/span><\/td>\nHerkimer**<\/span><\/td>\nNA<\/span><\/td>\n268<\/span><\/td>\nNA<\/span><\/td>\nTotal<\/span><\/td>\n16,311<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n8597<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n-47.29%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After nearly two years of maneuvering, name-calling, backroom finagling, map redrawing, and good old fashioned […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[6854,6550,6857,6862,6856,20,6834,6835],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6191"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6191"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6191\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6192,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6191\/revisions\/6192"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6191"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6191"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6191"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}