{"id":6234,"date":"2012-07-09T09:33:06","date_gmt":"2012-07-09T13:33:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/?p=6234"},"modified":"2012-07-09T13:53:06","modified_gmt":"2012-07-09T17:53:06","slug":"republicans-face-the-dilemma-of-the-big-blue-wall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/2012\/07\/09\/republicans-face-the-dilemma-of-the-big-blue-wall\/","title":{"rendered":"Republicans face the dilemma of the Big Blue Wall"},"content":{"rendered":"

The last several decades, the Republican Party has been shaped profoundly by deepening roots in the American South.<\/p>\n

The cultural and political landscape that stretches from the mid-Atlantic to Texas shifted the GOP sharply to the right.<\/p>\n

The modern Republican movement has a sensibility that is far more evangelical Christian, more rural, more white and more traditionalist than observers even a decade ago would have predicted.<\/p>\n

This political approach has produced strong results, with the GOP controlling the White House and Congress for long periods after 1980.<\/p>\n

Indeed, by many measures, this has been a golden age for the conservative movement, with right-of-center leaders and ideas often dominating the national debate.<\/p>\n

But it’s no secret that this broadly Southern reinvention of the Republican Party has also produced a countervailing trend, which has put the GOP in considerable peril in presidential contests.<\/p>\n

While conservatives have fared well in smaller, rural states — building a vast coalition that includes much of the South, the Midwest and the northern Rockies — Democrats have moved to dominate 3 of the nation’s 5 largest states.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

The Blue Wall effect in California. The state’s PVI (Partisan Voting Index) has shifted more than 12 points in favor of Democrats over the last eight presidential elections. Source: RealClearPolitics<\/p><\/div>\n

California, Illinois and New York are now safe “blue” territory, providing a combined total of 104 electoral college votes, which can be counted upon without the expenditure of campaign cash, organizational resources or candidate time.<\/p>\n

By contrast, Republicans can only count reliably on one mega-state:\u00a0 Texas.<\/p>\n

Democrats also have strong political and cultural advantages across the Great Lakes region, with Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin generally leaning into the blue column.<\/p>\n

Those states, along with the relatively safe terrain of the Northeast and the Pacific Northwest, provide roughly 235 electoral college votes.<\/p>\n

Which means that Democrats begin each race with significant advantages in states that provide\u00a0 87% of the total electoral college votes needed to win.<\/p>\n

That represents a huge systemic tilt, which the pundits have begun calling this the Big Blue Wall.<\/p>\n

Already, this paradigm means that Republican presidential contenders must run campaigns that are essentially perfect, finding ways to win in battleground states like Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Virginia.<\/p>\n

It also means they have to compete successfully in places that are often out of sympathy with the overall demographic and ideological trend of the GOP.<\/p>\n

As a consequence, Republican candidates haven’t enjoyed a blow-out win in the electoral since 1988.\u00a0\u00a0 They have eked by, prevailing by razor thin margins, even against relatively weak opponents.<\/p>\n

This is the headwind that Mitt Romney faces.\u00a0 His fate will likely hinge on whether he can capture one or two big bluish state like Michigan or Pennsylvania.<\/p>\n

The present-day scenario scary enough for the GOP.\u00a0 But conservatives could face an even greater danger going forward.<\/p>\n

There is a very real possibility that Democrats will soon add one or two new chunks to their blue wall.<\/p>\n

At present, it appears that Arizona and Florida are\u00a0 following much the same cultural trend that reshaped politics in California, Colorado and New Mexico, with a rapid growth of minorities (primarily Hispanic) and urbanites who tend to vote Democratic.<\/p>\n

Over the last decade alone, Florida’s Hispanic population rose from 16% to more than 22%. Over the same period, Arizona added 600,000 Hispanics.<\/p>\n

And it’s not just immigrants contributing to this trend.\u00a0 Native born Americans of Hispanic descent are growing in numbers rapidly.\u00a0 (Hispanics already make up 45% of Arizona’s population under the age of 18.)<\/p>\n

Unless these patterns reverse soon, America’s changing racial and ethnic landscape could shift American politics much faster than most people grasp.<\/p>\n

As early as 2016, Republicans could face a Democratic opponent who begins the presidential race with a literally overwhelming structural advantage.<\/p>\n

It is no longer beyond the realm of fanciful to imagine an American presidential contest — even one with two non-incumbents — where the outcome is essentially a foregone conclusion.<\/p>\n

If Joe Biden were to enter the contest with a substantial lead in Florida, for example, he would open his campaign with a likely 264 electoral college votes — just six shy of the total needed to win.<\/p>\n

Obviously, a lot of variables could change this near-future dilemma for the GOP.<\/p>\n

Republicans are making a strong play to rebuild support in the Great Lakes region, for example, a region that is much whiter and more rural than the country as a whole.<\/p>\n

If Mitt Romney can eke out a victory in Michigan or Wisconsin, the big blue wall will look far less formidable.<\/p>\n

And it may be that conservatives will find a way soon to reach out more effectively to Hispanics, or even African Americans.<\/p>\n

But competing successfully in those places and with those voters over the long term would likely mean a significant shift in policies and agenda, one that would sit uneasily with established Republican voters in the southern U.S.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The last several decades, the Republican Party has been shaped profoundly by deepening roots in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[6548,6550,20,6886,6888,6887,6835],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6234"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6234"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6234\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6234"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6234"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6234"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}