{"id":6781,"date":"2012-10-27T14:06:38","date_gmt":"2012-10-27T18:06:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/?p=6781"},"modified":"2012-10-31T15:24:58","modified_gmt":"2012-10-31T19:24:58","slug":"a-romney-win-an-obama-victory","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/2012\/10\/27\/a-romney-win-an-obama-victory\/","title":{"rendered":"A Romney win, an Obama victory"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>The political class in Washington DC is beginning to digest the increasingly plausible scenario where Barack Obama is the next president of the United States, despite losing the popular vote<\/a> — perhaps by a significant margin.<\/p>\n

Mitt Romney holds a stubborn, narrow lead in the popular vote polls.\u00a0 Barack Obama holds a stubborn, narrow lead in the electoral college math — a lead that rests in large measure on Ohio’s blue leaning voters, but also on persistent support in states like Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia.<\/p>\n

The conventional wisdom is that these numbers will somehow converge on election day, but that view rests largely on outdated information about the way American states vote, the way politicians campaign, and the way individuals cast their ballots.<\/p>\n

Here are the changes:<\/p>\n

1.\u00a0 More states are truly lopsided in their voting.\u00a0 So Barack Obama could lose horribly in much of the South, where his most passionate opposition is concentrated, while winning narrowly in enough states to give him the electoral college.<\/p>\n

2.\u00a0 The two campaigns appear to have changed the ground rules for how candidates turn out voters in high-focused states, using new networking strategies and digital media.\u00a0 Which means that — for example — you could see a really high turnout of Democratic voters in states like Colorado and Ohio and relatively lackluster Democratic showing in states like Connecticut and New York, where an Obama victory is still assured.\u00a0 So in theory Mitt Romney could win the country\u00a0 and lose those key battlegrounds.<\/p>\n

3.\u00a0 Early voting is locking in sentiment and voting loyalty in ways that we don’t quite understand yet.\u00a0 It could well be that this a) helps the Democrats mobilize more of their base in key states while b) insulating Obama against some of the Republican tilt that has emerged in the final weeks of the campaign.\u00a0 Bluntly, a significant chunk of battleground voters may have gone to the polls before Romney moved ahead.<\/p>\n

Again, a lot of experts expect this disconnect to evaporate in the final week, but I find their arguments unconvincing.\u00a0 Romney now leads by 5 points in the Gallup poll — a substantial margin.\u00a0 But polling in battlegrounds appears to show several states — particularly Colorado and Ohio — actually shifting more toward Obama.<\/p>\n

So here’s my question to In Boxers:\u00a0 What would this mean?\u00a0 The US Constitution is clear that the guy who wins the Electoral College is the president.<\/p>\n

Conservatives, would you see Obama as your legitimate commander in chief, duly chosen using the system designed by the Founding Fathers?\u00a0 Or not?<\/p>\n

And those of you who tilt liberal:\u00a0 Does this affect your view of the next Obama term?\u00a0 Would he be able to accomplish the things that you want done?<\/p>\n

As always, comments welcome.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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