{"id":6832,"date":"2012-11-07T10:12:40","date_gmt":"2012-11-07T15:12:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/?p=6832"},"modified":"2012-11-07T12:51:03","modified_gmt":"2012-11-07T17:51:03","slug":"whoot-in-box-nails-electoral-college-prediction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/2012\/11\/07\/whoot-in-box-nails-electoral-college-prediction\/","title":{"rendered":"Whoot! In Box nails Electoral College prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>

This journalist is ready for his fifteen minutes of fame. Photo: Mark Kurtz<\/p><\/div>\n

I’ve been accused today of triumphalism, so I thought I might as well indulge in some.<\/p>\n

On October 30th, I predicted that Barack Obama would win a second turn and I laid out this set of numbers:<\/a><\/p>\n

Come election day, score my prognostication skills against this mark:\u00a0 Obama wins the popular vote 49%-48% and he captures the electoral college by a 332-206 margin.<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

For now, at least, with Florida in Obama’s column, that’s exactly the mark the Democrat hit.\u00a0 I also made a prediction about the reason for his victory:<\/p>\n

On election day, the ground game advantage that Barack Obama’s campaign has been bragging about will turn out to be real.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Snap!\u00a0 And I also laid out predictions about the exact map that would get Obama to 332 electoral college votes.<\/p>\n

To hit this mark, Obama will win the states that are now essentially tied, including Colorado, Florida and Virginia.<\/p>\n

Obama’s margin will be extremely narrow in a surprising number of places \u2014 Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin \u2014 but he will eke out wins.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

B-ingo.<\/p>\n

I will acknowledge that I got the popular vote percentage wrong by ONE STINKING POINT, putting the final tally at 49-48% rather than the actual outcome of 50-48%.<\/p>\n

But I only acknowledge it to point out how amazingly close I was.\u00a0 I know, I know, shameful gloating is never pretty.\u00a0 And yes, it’s always better to be lucky than good.<\/p>\n

But when you have a day when you beat Larry Sabato, Nate Silver and most of the truly talented punditocracy, I say you’re owed<\/em> a victory lap.<\/p>\n

In my case, that means taking myself out to the local diner with a good sci-fi novel and ordering a big breakfast with a side of bacon…but you get the idea.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I’ve been accused today of triumphalism, so I thought I might as well indulge in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[6550],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6832"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6832"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6832\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6832"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6832"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6832"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}