{"id":686,"date":"2009-04-15T14:17:00","date_gmt":"2009-04-15T18:17:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/2009\/04\/15\/nate-silver-predicts-murphy-win-in-the-20th\/"},"modified":"2009-04-15T14:17:00","modified_gmt":"2009-04-15T18:17:00","slug":"nate-silver-predicts-murphy-win-in-the-20th","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/2009\/04\/15\/nate-silver-predicts-murphy-win-in-the-20th\/","title":{"rendered":"Nate Silver predicts Murphy win in the 20th"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nate Silver is a self-identified Barack Obama supporter, but he’s also a pretty sharp reader of polling data, demographic trends, and numerical election data.<\/p>\n

His website, FiveThirtyEight.com was often ahead of the curve during the 2008 presidential campaign. <\/p>\n

Silver has an analysis up of the Tedisco-Murphy contest that predicts a fairly comfortable Democratic win. <\/p>\n

Although Republican candidate Jim Tedisco is leaving no stone unturned in the special election in New York’s 20th Congressional District — including objecting to the ballot of Kirsten Gillibrand, the woman whom he hopes to replace in the Congress — the results tallied so far suggest that he is bound for defeat.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Silver basically reads the numbers in the absentee ballots returned so far and concludes that Democrat Scott Murphy’s absentee ballots are outperforming his election night performance by about 3.2%.

His analysis<\/a> factors in a disqualification rate of roughly 13% — meaning the campaigns can legally challenge that many ballots and (if Silver’s right) Tedisco would lose.<\/p>\n

Finally, he concludes that the Republican’s anticipated victory in Saratoga County will only net Tedisco around 33 additional ballots. Not enough to close the gap.<\/p>\n

Obviously, there are a lot of variables here — and there may be arguments the other direction as strong as Silver’s. If any one sees other interesting analyses out there, please comment below.<\/p>\n

Other thoughts? Have at it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nate Silver is a self-identified Barack Obama supporter, but he’s also a pretty sharp reader […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[874],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/686"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=686"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/686\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=686"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=686"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=686"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}