Republicans face a systemic dilemma that in some ways parallels the Democratic conundrum of the mid 1990s.<\/p>\n
In those years — thanks in part to Republican redistricting efforts — moderate Democrats were being picked off. The surviving party was smaller and more ideological.<\/p>\n
When Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) emerged as the House minority leader, it seemed possible that the Democratic movement would flounder toward the margins. <\/p>\n
But Pelosi and Democratic leaders in the Senate somehow resisted the temptation to follow their more purist base.<\/p>\n
They chose pragmatists like Rahm Emanuel (in the House) and Chuck Schumer (in the Senate) to lead their rebuilding effort. <\/p>\n
Even former Vermont Governor Howard Dean — at first seen as a firebrand — hunkered down and got busy doing the nuts-and-bolts work of erecting a 50-state political movement.<\/p>\n
The results were visible here in New York’s 20th congressional district, where first Kirsten Gillibrand and then Scott Murphy laid claim to a seat that had been cozily Republican.<\/p>\n
This week’s defection of Senator Arlen Specter from the GOP is more evidence that the conservative movement is trying a different and far more perilous path.<\/p>\n
With each passing year, the Republican Party is a smaller and more fervently ideological organization. (Rush Limbaugh describes this as a healthy “winnowing” process.)<\/p>\n
It appears that the temptations of purity are simply too great. The GOP could lose as many as 4 additional U.S. Senators in 2010, as moderates are ostracized or weakened by primary challenges. More defections are possible, perhaps likely.<\/p>\n
(Limbaugh seems particularly eager to drive Sen. John McCain out of the party.)<\/p>\n
Where might the downward spiral end? Ask a Whig. Or a Federalist…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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